El Nino could peak in late 2026, early 2027

Kieu Thi Thuy, a forecaster with the Southern Regional Hydrometeorological Center, has reviewed El Nino events over the past 70 years and the weather patterns typically seen in southern Vietnam when the phenomenon occurs.

She also offered an outlook for weather conditions across the region in late 2026 and early 2027.

According to an analysis of nearly a century of climate data, some of the strongest El Nino events on record occurred in 1982-1983, 1997-1998 and 2015-2016.

Forecast data similarly suggest that the 2026-2027 El Nino could follow a cycle and reach an intensity comparable to those historic events.

“El Nino is forecast to peak around late 2026 or early 2027 before gradually weakening. The potential severity of this event remains highly unpredictable and could even exceed historical records,” Thuy said.

Rainy season to end early, heat to arrive sooner

An analysis of weather patterns in southern Vietnam over nearly four decades shows that during El Nino years, the rainy season typically begins later and ends earlier than the long-term average.

In 2026, the rainy season across southern Vietnam is forecast to end early, although the timing will vary from one area to another.

In the northern part of the southeastern region and the coastal areas of Ca Mau and An Giang, the rainy season could continue until around mid-November.

Meanwhile, inland areas of the Mekong Delta are expected to see a relatively early end to the rainy season, between mid- and late October.

Total annual rainfall, rainfall during the final months of 2026 and early 2027, and the number of rainy days across southern Vietnam are all forecast to be significantly below the long-term average.

Severe heat could push temperatures beyond records

Thuy said that alongside the rainfall deficit, temperatures across southern Vietnam during the 2026-2027 period are expected to remain well above the long-term average.

Localized heatwaves could emerge as early as late 2026, initially concentrated in the southeastern provinces.

By early 2027, intense heat is expected to spread rapidly across the entire southern region. Heatwaves could persist for extended periods and reach severe levels.

Maximum temperatures at many monitoring stations could approach or exceed historical records, potentially matching or surpassing the extreme conditions recorded during the 2015-2016 period.

Mekong Delta faces severe drought and saltwater intrusion risks

According to Thuy, the combination of widespread heat, elevated temperatures and an early end to the rainy season could push southern Vietnam into a serious water shortage.

“Drought and saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta are forecast to become extremely severe,” she said.

Moreover, after the dry spell in early 2027, the 2027 rainy season in southern Vietnam is also likely to arrive later than the long-term average.

Thuy warned that this could prolong drought and saltwater intrusion while placing significant pressure on agricultural production and people’s daily lives.

Bao Anh