Tighter real estate credit and rising borrowing costs are sharply reducing speculative activity, pushing the market toward long-term investors and projects with genuine value.

Speculation gradually fading from the market

Vu Cuong Quyet, CEO of Dat Xanh Mien Bac, said stricter control over real estate credit and lending rates reaching around 12-13 percent will gradually push speculators out of the market, as opportunities to profit from quick “flipping” trades become increasingly limited.

This shift is expected to curb short-term investors and trigger a strong market filtering process. By 2026, the real estate sector will largely become a playground for investors with long-term capital and financial resilience.

Speaking with VietNamNet, Nguyen Quang Huy, CEO of the Faculty of Finance - Banking at Nguyen Trai University, said the property market previously benefited from a gap between rising asset prices and relatively low borrowing costs.

When property prices rose faster than interest rates, profits were amplified.

However, when lending rates climb to around 14-15 percent per year, that gap narrows significantly. If the market does not grow quickly enough, expected profits will erode or even reverse.

“Short-term speculation is cooling noticeably. Secondary market transactions are slowing due to higher capital costs,” Huy said.

“Investors using high leverage must reconsider their portfolios, prioritizing assets capable of generating real cash flow through rentals or operational activities.”

As a result, the market is shifting its focus from short-term “waves” to real value. Financial leverage has not disappeared but is now used with greater discipline.

Profit, he noted, will no longer come from herd psychology but from analytical ability, careful site selection, infrastructure evaluation and long-term risk management.

According to Huy, tighter control of real estate credit growth, combined with priority funding for production, exports and small and medium-sized enterprises, reflects a broader effort to rebalance capital flows within the economy.

With macroeconomic stability and financial system safety placed at the forefront, capital is increasingly directed toward sectors that generate direct value and create spillover benefits across industries.

Real estate is not being “shut out” from financing, but access to capital is becoming more selective and subject to stricter appraisal.

Projects with complete legal documentation, financially strong developers and products that meet genuine housing demand - particularly those supported by banks - can still access funding relatively smoothly.

In contrast, projects that rely heavily on leverage or lack legal clarity will face greater challenges.

“This is not a short-term reaction, but a structural shift aimed at guiding the market toward safer and more transparent development,” Huy said.

A stress test for the property market

Huy added that in the short term, property transactions may slow, particularly in high-end and speculative segments.

Mid-range housing tied to genuine demand, along with industrial real estate and social housing, are likely to take the lead. These segments have more fundamental demand and are less dependent on short-term price expectations.

In the medium term, if interest rates reach their peak and gradually stabilize, the market could recover step by step. However, the next growth cycle will not rely on speculative waves but on strong financial foundations, project quality and the governance capacity of developers.

Over the long term, Vietnam’s structural fundamentals remain positive, including rapid urbanization, large-scale infrastructure investment, a young population and strong demand for housing.

High interest rates, therefore, are cyclical variables that may create adjustment pressure but do not alter the long-term development trajectory of the market.

“The rise in interest rates is not merely a monetary fluctuation but a test for the entire real estate ecosystem,” Huy said.

“In every adjustment cycle, the market does not weaken but becomes more mature.”

When capital is no longer cheap, real estate must return to its core principles - efficiency, transparency and financial discipline.

Homebuyers are gradually shifting from a mindset of ownership toward long-term financial planning.

Investors are reducing dependence on leverage and focusing more on assets that generate real operating value.

Meanwhile, developers are raising governance standards and optimizing capital structures.

Growth, he said, will transition from explosive waves driven by speculation to deeper, more sustainable development.

The new cycle will not favor haste.

Instead, it will belong to those who clearly understand their financial capacity, remain committed to long-term strategies and respect market discipline.

This filtering process, Huy emphasized, will shape a more cautious, professional and sustainable real estate market in the years ahead.

In the long run, once macroeconomic foundations remain stable, infrastructure continues to improve and market confidence strengthens, the sector could enter a higher-quality growth cycle - where real value replaces short-term expectations and financial discipline becomes the standard for development.

Nguyen Le