Record temperatures point to a milder winter

Ta Thi Hong An, a forecaster at the Climate Forecasting Division of Vietnam's National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, said El Nino is currently in a very strong phase.

The phenomenon is expected to reach its peak intensity between now and the early months of 2027 before persisting into the beginning of summer 2027.

Its effects have already become apparent. Throughout September and the first half of October, temperatures across Vietnam were generally 1-2 degrees Celsius above the long-term average.

Notably, the national meteorological agency recorded 59 weather stations where daily maximum temperatures equaled or exceeded historical records for the corresponding period.

The unusually warm conditions are expected to continue. In November 2026, average temperatures nationwide are forecast to remain 1-2 degrees Celsius above normal.

During December 2026 and January 2027, temperatures are projected to be 0.5-1.5 degrees Celsius above the long-term average across most of the country. In the Central Highlands and southern Vietnam, the difference could reach 1-2 degrees Celsius.

According to An, the elevated temperatures are likely to weaken the influence of cold air masses during the 2026-2027 winter.

Severe cold spells are expected to arrive later than usual, while northern Vietnam and the north-central region could experience fewer days of intense or damaging cold compared with previous years.

However, the meteorological agency cautioned that localized episodes of severe cold cannot be ruled out, including potentially intense cold spells.

Light rain and drizzle, common features of spring weather in northern Vietnam, are also expected to occur less frequently than the long-term average in spring 2027.

Fewer storms in the East Sea, early drought risk in southern Vietnam

Regarding tropical storms and depressions, An said there are currently no indications of such weather systems developing over the East Sea between now and the end of October 2026.

"From November 2026 to January 2027, approximately one or two storms or tropical depressions are expected to occur over the East Sea, with a low likelihood of directly affecting Vietnam's mainland," she said.

Beyond higher temperatures, the strong El Nino is also increasing the risk of rainfall deficits and water shortages.

During the remaining months of 2026, rainfall across central Vietnam is forecast to fall below the long-term average for the corresponding period.

The rainy season in the Central Highlands and southern Vietnam may also end earlier than usual, potentially extending the dry season and placing additional pressure on water resources.

Reduced rainfall is expected to lower river flows across central and southern Vietnam compared with historical averages.

These conditions could cause saltwater intrusion in the Mekong Delta, Vietnam's major agricultural production region, to begin earlier and become more severe than both the long-term average and the corresponding period in 2026.

The threat is particularly concerning for communities and agricultural producers that depend on freshwater supplies from rivers and canals.

Meteorological authorities also warned that climate change is making weather patterns increasingly complex, with extreme events such as heatwaves, heavy rainfall, flash floods and landslides posing persistent risks.

Government agencies, organizations and local authorities have therefore been advised to closely monitor short-term weather forecasts covering the next one to three days.

Regular updates will help them adjust production schedules, prepare appropriate response measures and protect lives and property as weather conditions evolve.

Bao Anh