On April 17, 2026, the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment issued an official dispatch to the head of the National Civil Defense Steering Committee, providing updates on El Nino developments and early assessments of potential water shortages.

Risk of a super El Nino by year-end

Forecasts indicate that El Nino is likely to form between June and August 2026, with a probability of 80-90%. Notably, there is a 20-25% chance that the phenomenon could intensify into a very strong event, or super El Nino, by the end of the year and extend into 2027.

In reality, heatwaves have already arrived earlier than the long-term average. Since the beginning of the year, nationwide rainfall has been 10-40% below normal, while water levels in many river basins have dropped to record lows. The ministry emphasized that this is an early warning sign of severe water shortages from the very start of the season.

Forecast of extreme weather patterns

If El Nino develops as projected, average temperatures across the country are expected to rise above normal levels, with more frequent and intense heatwaves compared to 2025.

Rainfall is likely to be significantly reduced during the dry season of 2026, particularly from late 2026 to early 2027, with widespread deficits of 25-50%. At the same time, the rainy season may end earlier than usual.

The Da River system, for example, faces a potential shortfall of 10-25% in water flow between May and July 2026, posing considerable risks to downstream water supply and energy security.

This situation also heightens the risk of severe drought and saltwater intrusion in the South Central region, the Central Highlands, and the Mekong Delta during the 2026-2027 dry season.

Notably, during El Nino periods, while the number of storms in the East Sea tends to decrease, there is a heightened need to prepare for stronger storms with complex and unpredictable paths. Sudden localized heavy rains, flash floods, and landslides may still occur without warning.

The Ministry of Agriculture and Environment will continue to direct meteorological agencies to closely monitor ENSO developments and issue timely forecasts, enabling the government and local authorities to proactively implement response measures.

According to meteorological experts, El Nino refers to the abnormal warming of surface sea waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean. The phenomenon typically lasts between 8 and 12 months and occurs in cycles of approximately three to four years.

Since early 2026, meteorological agencies have consistently maintained projections about the formation of El Nino toward the end of the year. The latest updates show that the probability of occurrence has increased to around 70-80%, with the possibility of persisting into 2027.

During El Nino periods, regions such as Southeast Asia, India, and Australia tend to experience reduced rainfall and higher temperatures. In Vietnam, strong El Nino years are often associated with more frequent and intense heatwaves, sometimes breaking historical temperature records.

Bao Anh