The target of achieving average GDP growth of 10 percent or more per year during 2026 - 2030 is a powerful declaration. It sends a clear message: the country will not accept slow progress during this pivotal period.

Yet high growth is not a matter of resolve or slogans. It is a question of national capacity - institutional capacity, implementation capacity and the ability to mobilize and unlock social resources.

The most important question at the outset of 2026, therefore, is this: where does Vietnam stand on the growth runway, and is it sufficiently prepared for takeoff?

Interwoven opportunities and challenges

Entering 2026, the economy possesses several rare advantages - if viewed calmly and fairly.

Externally, although the international environment remains uncertain, it also presents new openings. The restructuring of global supply chains, the diversification of manufacturing locations and the shift of investment away from traditional hubs continue to place Vietnam among the economies drawing attention.

With a market of more than 100 million people, a favorable geoeconomic position and a network of new-generation free trade agreements, Vietnam enjoys advantages not every developing country can claim.

The technological revolution - from digital transformation to artificial intelligence - offers the possibility of leapfrogging for economies that seize the moment. With a young population, rapid technology adoption and strong entrepreneurial spirit, Vietnam does not lack the potential to participate more deeply in this wave.

Domestically, after the 14th Congress, development objectives have been clearly and consistently defined at the highest level. In his directive remarks at the national conference to disseminate the Congress resolution, Party General Secretary To Lam emphasized the need to shift decisively from planning to execution, from saying the right things to delivering results; and to measure every policy by effectiveness and the people’s satisfaction.

That message provides an important political anchor for reform: development for stability, real outcomes as the standard of evaluation, and no tolerance for superficial reform.

Still, the challenges are substantial and must be confronted directly to avoid complacency.

The global economy is entering a phase of slower growth and higher interest rates than before, while protectionism is returning in more subtle forms. Monetary and fiscal policy space is narrower than during the years marked by supply chain disruptions and the Covid-19 pandemic.

More concerning are the internal bottlenecks. Long-standing institutional constraints have yet to be fully removed. Implementation capacity varies across levels of government. A lingering fear of making mistakes and an avoidance of responsibility persist in parts of the system, causing sound decisions to stall in practice.

Labor productivity growth remains modest. Private enterprises struggle to scale up. Innovation has not yet become the primary engine of expansion. As the economy grows larger, each additional percentage point of growth becomes more costly, while the space for old drivers is gradually narrowing.

In such an interwoven landscape of opportunity and challenge, the 10 percent target cannot be understood simplistically. It is not an easy promise but a rigorous test of reform capacity and the system’s will to act.

In international comparison, Vietnam’s growth ambition is both aspirational and demanding. With per capita GDP currently around US$5,000 and a target of approximately US$8,500 by 2030, the country stands close to the “danger zone” of the middle-income trap - where many economies have stalled for failing to change their growth model in time.

The real lesson, therefore, is not achieving 10 percent for a year or two, but sustaining high growth long enough. That can only happen if the economy moves away from a model reliant on capital, credit and low-cost labor toward one driven by productivity, technology and innovation.

The resources among the people are not lacking

The private sector has become a true pillar of the economy, contributing more than half of GDP and over 80 percent of employment. If Vietnam is to achieve high and sustainable growth, it must first happen here.

In reality, however, Vietnamese private enterprises remain small and fragmented. Firms large enough to undertake long-term investment, lead technological advancement and drive innovation are still rare. Labor productivity growth is slow, and each new growth point is increasingly expensive. The digital economy, though promising, is not yet large enough to serve as the main engine.

Resources among the people are not lacking. The issue is that they remain in a defensive posture. When business confidence is not nurtured, and when risks are amplified by policy and legal uncertainty, capital and talent tend to stand aside rather than invest and innovate.

Policy bottlenecks, therefore, are not merely technical matters; they directly affect social trust.

An economy, in essence, resembles a living organism. Goods are the blood, enterprises the arteries, and policy the regulating valves. When valves open at the right time, flow is smooth; when they close at the wrong moment, the entire system can become congested.

Recent developments surrounding Decree 46 illustrate an uncomfortable reality: policies designed to manage risk can themselves become risks to production, business and livelihoods.

In an economy that operates by the hour and by the day, a single misplaced bottleneck can stall the entire flow.

Resolution 66, therefore, is not merely a technical amendment to legislation but a warning about governance mindset: it is no longer viable to treat prohibition as the default option for safety. In an open economy, the law must learn to facilitate legitimate flows rather than confine them in fear of risk.

Keeping the people’s trust is keeping everything

If one had to capture the spirit of action for 2026 in a single sentence, it would be this: do immediately the difficult but necessary things.

That means removing unnecessary procedures that persist out of habit; shifting genuinely from pre-approval to post-inspection rather than merely changing terminology; granting clearer decentralization to local authorities alongside full accountability, so that those who dare to decide are not left suspended between risk and silence.

Ten percent growth is the sum of thousands of concrete decisions made each day across ministries, sectors and localities. Thus 2026 is not only a year of ambitious targets but the first true trial by fire of the system’s implementation capacity.

The guiding spirit of the new phase, as General Secretary To Lam stressed, is that development effectiveness must be measured by the people’s benefit and satisfaction.

Citizens “read” policy through every administrative procedure, every land dossier, every tuition payment at the start of the school year, every business opportunity that arrives - or fails to. At that level, grand concepts become simple: good policy makes life lighter; genuine reform reduces worry.

In the new year 2026, Vietnam must move faster but in the right direction; reform deeply enough to create real capacity; and place people at the center of every development decision. For in every stage of national progress, keeping the people’s trust means keeping everything.

Tu Giang