As policymakers set their sights on double-digit expansion, the challenge lies in aligning public investment, private enterprise and macro stability into a coherent growth strategy.
The year 2026 is expected to mark a decisive acceleration for the economy, with a growth target of 10 percent or higher - a milestone that is both challenging and rich with opportunity to reposition Vietnam within the region. Achieving this goal is not merely about reaching a number, but about identifying the right drivers, pushing forward bold institutional reform and unleashing critical growth engines.
VietNamNet launches the series “Realizing the double-digit growth target” to examine in depth the available headroom, challenges and necessary conditions to translate growth aspirations into concrete action. The series will clarify the roles of public investment, the private sector, manufacturing and processing, domestic consumption, digital transformation and innovation in building a sustainable, high-quality and long-term growth foundation.
As Vietnam enters 2026, the central question is no longer whether growth is fast or slow, but what foundations it rests upon. Which engines will power the country to the finish line? VietNamNet spoke with Dr. Le Ba Chi Nhan, an economic expert, to explore these issues.
Dr. Le Ba Chi Nhan.
Asked to reflect on 2025, a year widely described as exceptional for bringing together hardship, resilience and determined efforts to reverse the tide, Dr. Le Ba Chi Nhan said the year marked a genuine turning point.
From an economic perspective, 2025 required Vietnam to operate in a “two-directional” state - confronting mounting external pressures while simultaneously revealing its internal strength and adaptability.
The most striking feature of 2025, he noted, was the economy’s resilience amid a volatile international environment. The global economy continued to be shaped by geopolitical tensions, rising protectionism and uneven recovery across regions. Against this backdrop, Vietnam’s ability to sustain relatively high growth, contain inflation and maintain macroeconomic balances suggested that the economy had reached a more structural level of stability, rather than relying excessively on cyclical factors. Many international observers believe Vietnam is gradually forming an economic “buffer zone” strong enough to absorb external shocks.
The year also highlighted a visible shift in the growth model. Where Vietnam once relied heavily on low-cost labor and export processing, high technology industries, advanced manufacturing and the digital economy are now emerging as more prominent growth drivers.
Several researchers argue that Vietnam is entering a phase of repositioning within global value chains, moving beyond being merely a manufacturing destination to participating more deeply in higher value-added segments. This is a positive signal, as growth quality is improving instead of focusing solely on scale.
At the same time, 2025 laid bare persistent internal bottlenecks. Institutional constraints, administrative procedures, labor productivity and the quality of human resources remain significant barriers to long-term growth. Some experts warn that without robust institutional reform, Vietnam risks falling into a pattern of “fast but fragile” growth. The business sector, particularly small and medium-sized enterprises, continues to struggle with access to capital, markets and technology, underscoring the need for deeper internal reform momentum.
The year also underscored Vietnam’s continued dependence on external dynamics, especially international trade and global supply chains. This reality reinforces the imperative to diversify markets, enhance domestic production autonomy and develop supporting industries at home.
In the longer view, 2025 was not only a year of positive growth outcomes, but also a period that tested governance capacity and economic endurance. Independent economists see it as a transitional stage - a shift from a cost-advantage-driven model toward one anchored in innovation, human capital quality and national competitiveness. If this transition is well managed, Vietnam could enter a new development cycle on firmer ground and with a stronger regional standing.
Significantly, 2025 also witnessed the completion of a series of strategic institutional frameworks, including key resolutions issued by the Politburo. According to Dr. Le Ba Chi Nhan, their importance lies not only in economic results, but in providing a long-term guiding framework for growth from 2026 onward.
These resolutions reflect a consolidation of development thinking at the strategic level. Rather than focusing solely on short-term growth targets, they place greater emphasis on growth quality, economic self-reliance and the renewal of the development model. Observers see this as a shift from “reactive management” to “strategic governance,” in which the state proactively designs development space instead of merely addressing emerging problems.
Their most immediate impact on 2026 will be the removal of structural bottlenecks. Resolutions on improving the socialist-oriented market economy framework, advancing science and technology, promoting innovation, digital transformation and green transition are expected to create more substantive improvements in the investment and business climate.
When institutional reform is implemented in a coordinated manner, compliance costs for enterprises will decline and market confidence will strengthen, reactivating private investment flows - a decisive factor for sustainable growth in the coming phase.
Strategic policies adopted in 2025 will also help redefine the roles of economic sectors in 2026. The private sector is more clearly identified as a key growth engine; the state sector is to focus on strategic and leading fields; and the FDI sector is expected to integrate more closely with domestic enterprises.
If these orientations are executed consistently, 2026 could see more widespread growth spillovers, replacing the previous pattern of localized expansion.
On the supply side, the new resolutions create fresh momentum through the development of high-quality human resources, science and technology, and innovation. These are seen as decisive in helping Vietnam overcome the limitations of a growth model dependent on labor and capital, whose efficiency gains are gradually diminishing. By 2026, these policies are expected to begin “seeping” into the economy, generating new and more sustainable growth space.
Strategic decisions finalized in 2025 thus serve not only as direction-setting instruments, but as an institutional launchpad for the next development phase. Provided implementation is resolute and synchronized, 2026 could become a pivotal year - shifting from recovery and stabilization to reform-driven growth, innovation and enhanced national competitiveness. This is the greatest expectation shared by the economic community.
According to the expert, 2026 will be the point when policies begin to “seep” into the economy, creating new and more sustainable growth space. Photo by Nguyen Hue.
At a national conference reviewing the work of 2025 and setting tasks for 2026, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh described the double-digit growth target as a “high mountain” to conquer.
Dr. Le Ba Chi Nhan believes the ambition of 10 percent or more is demanding but feasible, if Vietnam can identify and effectively activate its key growth engines. The core issue, he stressed, is not a single driver, but policy synergy and effective execution.
First, public investment and strategic infrastructure development remain the most important leading force. With limited room left for monetary stimulus, public investment - particularly in major transport projects, digital infrastructure, energy and logistics - will act as catalytic capital, crowding in private and FDI investment while generating rapid spillover effects for growth.
Second, the manufacturing and processing sector must be both restored and upgraded. It remains a pillar of growth, exports and employment. Achieving high growth will require not only the recovery of orders, but also a shift toward higher value-added segments and deeper participation in global supply chains, especially in electronics, high technology, supporting industries and renewable energy.
Third, the domestic private sector must truly become the central engine. Double-digit growth demands dynamism from millions of enterprises and business households. This hinges on institutional reform, reduced compliance costs, an improved investment climate and better access to capital, particularly for small and medium-sized enterprises.
Fourth, domestic consumption and high-quality services are increasingly vital. With a large population and a rapidly expanding middle class, the domestic market is a sustainable source of growth. Tourism, trade, logistics, finance and banking, the digital economy and the green economy - if fully leveraged - can create substantial additional growth space.
Finally, macroeconomic management quality and market confidence are decisive. The 10 percent target can only be realized if fiscal, monetary and investment policies are well coordinated, while macro stability is maintained, inflation kept under control and investor confidence preserved both at home and abroad.
To reach or surpass 10 percent growth in 2026, Vietnam will need a combined engine: public investment as the lead driver, upgraded manufacturing, a breakout private sector, expanded consumption and services, underpinned by flexible and decisive macroeconomic management.
This is not merely a question of speed, but a test of growth quality and the economy’s reform capacity.
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