According to the National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, as of 1 p.m. today (November 25), the center of the tropical depression was located over the western waters of the central Philippines.

Maximum sustained winds near the center reached level 7 (50–61 km/h), with gusts at level 9. The system is moving quickly to the west-northwest at around 30 km/h.

Over the next 24 hours, it is expected to continue heading west-northwest at 20–25 km/h and enter the East Sea. Once inside Vietnamese waters, it is likely to strengthen into the 15th named storm of the year.

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Forecast trajectory and intensity of the tropical depression as of November 25. Source: NCHMF

By 1 p.m. on November 26, the storm’s center is expected to be over the eastern part of the central East Sea, with winds strengthening to level 9 and gusts reaching level 11.

In the following 24 hours, it will maintain its direction, slow to 10–15 km/h, and may continue to intensify. By 1 p.m. on November 27, the center is forecast to lie over the central East Sea with winds at level 10 and gusts at level 12.

From 48 to 72 hours after that, the storm is projected to move slowly westward at 5–10 km/h and could further strengthen.

Earlier, meteorologists warned that the storm could track toward the southern central coast, potentially impacting areas from Gia Lai to Lam Dong (formerly the provinces from Binh Dinh to Binh Thuan). The main period of influence is expected from November 28 to 30.

However, once it nears the coastline, the storm may weaken due to interaction with incoming cold air masses and the lower sea surface temperatures in the southern East Sea. When it makes landfall, the system may bring winds equivalent to a level 8–9 storm or degrade into a tropical depression.

Initial forecasts (subject to change) indicate that between November 28 and 30, widespread heavy rainfall could affect areas from Da Nang to Lam Dong, with the heaviest rains likely along the coastal stretch.

Additionally, forecasters said that after last night’s cold air surge, two more are expected to follow - one around November 26–27 and another around November 30.

The future strength and path of tropical storm No. 15 will likely depend on its interaction with these cold air waves. Meteorological agencies will closely monitor the system to provide timely updates.

Starting this evening, strong winds are expected to increase in the eastern part of the central East Sea, reaching level 6–7, and up to level 8–9 with gusts at level 11 near the storm’s center. Waves could rise to 4–6 meters, with very rough sea conditions.

From the afternoon of November 26 to 28, the central East Sea - including the northern part of the Truong Sa (Spratly) Archipelago - is expected to experience even stronger winds at levels 10–11, with gusts up to level 14. Waves may reach 7–9 meters, with extremely rough seas.

All vessels operating in these areas face the risk of thunderstorms, squalls, strong winds, and dangerous high waves.

Bao Anh