Growth drivers gain momentum

Vietnam's economy closed the first half of 2026 on a positive note, with GDP growing 8.18 percent, up from 7.63 percent in the same period last year, while average inflation was contained at 4.38 percent, close to the target set by the National Assembly.

The positive outlook is also reflected in new forecasts from international institutions. In its latest report, Standard Chartered raised its forecast for Vietnam's GDP growth in 2026 to 9.5 percent and expects the economy to grow 11 percent in 2027. The bank also lowered its inflation forecasts to 4.4 percent this year and 3.3 percent next year, reflecting easing price pressures.

According to Standard Chartered, the State Bank of Vietnam is likely to keep interest rates stable to support growth while retaining room to control inflation.

The positive growth momentum emerged as early as the first quarter, when GDP grew 7.83 percent, showing that the economy entered the new year from a stronger footing than in previous years. Public investment continued to play a leading role as major infrastructure projects were accelerated, while industrial production, consumption and services all improved.

In the second quarter, Vietnam's economy faced external pressures including geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices, elevated global interest rates and continued uncertainty in international trade. However, second-quarter GDP still grew an estimated 8.39 percent, pushing six-month growth to its highest level in years.

Growth drivers have also become more balanced. In the first six months, the manufacturing and processing sector grew 10.23 percent, while exports reached $266.5 billion, up 21 percent. The construction sector expanded 9.51 percent, supported by infrastructure investment. Retail sales of goods and consumer service revenue rose 12.9 percent, while Vietnam welcomed nearly 12.3 million international visitors in the first half of the year.

Another bright spot was foreign direct investment. Total registered FDI reached $34.65 billion, up 61 percent, while disbursed capital totaled $13.03 billion, the highest level in five years. In addition to new projects, foreign investors' capital contributions and share purchases also increased by nearly 90 percent, signaling stronger long-term confidence in Vietnam's investment environment.

Ample room for breakthroughs, 3 key hurdles ahead 

According to Vu Binh Minh of HSBC Vietnam, in the first six months of the year, Vietnam's economy is in a relatively favorable position with growth remaining high and resilience to external shocks exceeding expectations.

Even so, a positive foundation does not mean risks have vanished. The HSBC expert believes the economy still needs to pass three crucial tests in the second half of the year.

First is the trade balance. Vietnam recorded a trade deficit of about $16.65 billion in the first six months. Although most import turnover came from machinery, equipment, and raw materials for production, reflecting preparation for a new growth cycle, imports growing faster than exports also places certain pressure on exchange rates and the balance of payments.

Second is inflation. Average CPI at 4.38 percent remains within the target threshold, but price pressures grew clearer in the final months of Q2 as energy, imported raw materials, and food prices rose together. Although core inflation was only at 4.12 percent, indicating that pressure has not spread widely, this remains a factor requiring close monitoring amid continuing recovery in aggregate demand.

Third are exchange rates and interest rates. The VND faced greater pressure from late Q1 as foreign currency demand for imports and payments increased. Meanwhile, the gap between credit growth and deposit mobilization kept interest rate levels elevated. However, the State Bank of Vietnam operated flexibly through open market operations and term foreign currency sales to stabilize liquidity, contributing to maintaining exchange rate and money market stability.

According to HSBC's assessment, if Q2 was a period of overcoming external shocks, Q3 will be a time to accelerate, as pressure lies in maintaining growth momentum while capital demand, exchange rates, and inflation face simultaneous strain.

In Q4, prospects may brighten thanks to the peak export season, rising tourist numbers, and increased remittances, thereby supporting the balance of payments and easing pressure on exchange rates. Besides, the prospect of a stock market upgrade is also expected to become an important catalyst helping attract international capital flows, improve liquidity, and raise capital quality into Vietnam over the medium and long term.

Manh Ha