In 2023, Vietnam witnessed an important milestone in its history – the birth of the 100 millionth citizen. The General Statistics Office (GSO) predicted that the 100 millionth citizen would be born in April and planned to hold a grand welcoming ceremony.

However, the ceremony was not organized because some agencies said Vietnam’s population exceeded the 100 million threshold a long time ago, if counting the five million citizens working overseas.

Because of the two calculation methods with different concepts and figures, no agreement was reached by state agencies. Finally, the ceremony on welcoming the 100 millionth citizen was canceled. 

Though the ceremony did not take place, 100 million people is still a significant figure during the golden population period with nearly 70 percent of population in working age. The golden population period is a golden opportunity which only occurs once in the development history of a nation.

With the 15th largest population in the world, Vietnam has huge human resources for development and contribution to the world’s wealth.

The young population and purchasing power attracts international investors. FDI capital keeps flowing to Vietnam with capital higher than the previous year. 

The figures

With the population increase, the scale of Vietnam’s economy has been expanding. Vietnam’s GDP reached $366 billion in 2021, $409 billion in 2022, and was estimated to reach $435.4-439.5 billion in 2023, according to a government report.

Vietnam’s GDP per capita was $4,109 in 2022 and higher in 2023.

According to the World Bank criteria, a country hits a high-middle income level when its income per capita reaches $4,045 per annum. 

With the growth rate, experts say, it would be not difficult to reach the target of $4,700-5,000 GDP per capita by 2025.

Vietnam has made great strides over the last three decades comparing with the figures in the past, when GDP per capita was just $98 (1990’s prices).

However, analysts point out that though Vietnam’s GDP per capita keeps increasing, it is just the fifth highest among ASEAN countries, after Singapore ($79,430), Malaysia ($13,110), Thailand ($7,630) and Indonesia ($4,690). And Vietnam just ranks the 117th in the world, according to the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Lagging behind 

Vietnam’s productivity, one of the indicators showing the competitiveness of a nation, reached $20,400 in 2022, just equal to 11.4 percent of Singapore’s, 35.4 percent of Malaysia’s and 64.8 percent of Thailand’s in accordance with the 2017 purchasing power parity.

Economists point out that increasing productivity is a major task for now because this is the quickest way for Vietnam to develop its economy rapidly and sustainably.

Meanwhile, Vietnam’s growth is on the decrease. The growth rate was 7.56 percent when implementing the first 10-year development strategy (1991-2000), 6.61 percent in the second, 6 percent in the third, and 5.6 percent in the first three years of the fourth 10-year development strategy.

In order to obtain a growth rate of 7 percent for the 2021-2025 period, Vietnam needs to obtain growth rates of 9 percent per annum in 2024 and 2025, a very high growth rate that Vietnam could only obtain in the early 1990s, when the economy began soaring in the doi moi (renovation) period.

Some time ago, the World Bank released a warning that Vietnam had become a society that started aging in 2015 and was forecast to age from 2035.

Vietnam’s population of working age peaked in 2014 and is predicted to decrease in the next decades. The aging process has begun and it will be accelerating. The number of people aged 65 and higher was 6.31 million in 2014 (6.7 percent of population), while the figure is predicted to be three times higher – 19.6 million – than in 2014 (18 percent).

The institution warned that if there is no reform, Vietnam’s long-term growth will slow down from 2020 to 2050, decreasing by 0.9 percentage point compared with the 15 years’ growth rate, mostly because of the aging population.

Tu Giang