A pivotal moment

The world in 2025 is no longer like it was just a few years ago. The global economy is forecast to grow around 2.5-2.7 percent, a prolonged low level since the pandemic. The US and EU are pushing industrial policies and green standards. China is adjusting its growth model toward consumption and high technology. Nearly 3,000 trade restrictive measures have been applied in just the past two years. Global supply chains are undergoing strong restructuring; multinational corporations are accelerating strategies to shift away from China.

In this geoeconomic movement, nations compete not only by GDP but also by image, technological capacity, institutional quality, living environment, and national values. This is a new race, fiercer, deeper and with a long-term strategic positioning.

For Vietnam, a country of 100 million people, with a central geo-strategic position in Southeast Asia and growth momentum well above the global average, this is a moment for transformation, provided that it chooses the right approach, mobilizes its internal strengths, and seizes emerging opportunities.

Existing foundations

Over four decades of Doi Moi (renovation), Vietnam has been among the fastest-growing economies in the world. GDP per capita has increased 6.6 times since 1985. The economy now stands at $485 billion (IMF), ranking 34th globally. Export turnover  surpassed $450 billion, placing Vietnam 23rd worldwide. Disbursed FDI in 2025 reached a record $25 billion, reflecting the strong appeal of the economy.

High-tech industries have the potential to become new growth engines. Vietnam has already become a strategic base for Samsung, LG, Intel, Apple’s supply chain, Amkor, and others. A young, abundant workforce that rapidly adopts new technologies provides a significant competitive advantage.

The digital economy is continuing to grow strongly. According to Google & Temasek, Vietnam's digital economy reached $30 billion in 2023 and could rise to $55 billion by 2025, among the fastest-growing groups in Southeast Asia. A dynamic, integrated, and creative Vietnam is clearly taking shape.

The momentum

Documents for the 14th Party Congress set a double-digit GDP growth target and a GDP per capita of $8,500 by 2030, rising to the higher-middle-income group. These goals reflect national ambition, and achieving them requires leveraging the following pillars.

First, the strongest FDI relocation wave in three decades. UNCTAD notes that over 50 percent of large multinational corporations are shifting part of their production out of China. Vietnam ranks among the top three most attractive destinations, alongside India and Mexico. If Vietnam attracts $35-40 billion in FDI annually during 2026–2030, the manufacturing and processing sector could achieve growth of 12–14 percent per year.

Second, accelerating digital transformation. Internet penetration has reached 78 percent, while e-commerce is growing at 25–30 percent annually. With the right strategy and execution, Vietnam has an opportunity to become an ASEAN digital economy hub.

Third, national infrastructure as a new growth catalyst. More than VND2.87 quadrillion in public investment for 2021–2025, the largest ever, is gradually shaping a new connectivity network: the North–South Expressway, Long Thanh International Airport, Hanoi and HCMC ring roads, and national digital infrastructure.

Challenges

First, competition for FDI is intensifying. India, Indonesia, and Malaysia are offering superior tax incentives and infrastructure to attract investors in semiconductors and electronics. 

Second, green standards are becoming a “trade passport.” The EU is implementing CBAM; the US, Japan, and South Korea are setting carbon roadmaps. Vietnam’s steel, cement, textile, and chemical industries face mounting pressure if they don’t go green.

Third, Vietnam’s labor productivity remains far below that of competitors. 

Fourth, environmental and urbanization risks. According to an ADB analysis, climate change could cause losses of 12–14 percent of GDP by 2050.

Vietnam is repositioning itself as a self-reliant and stable country; a high-tech manufacturing hub in Asia; a rapidly digitizing and innovative nation; a green and livable country; and a nation of 100 million people with ambition. Aspiration defines identity. A people willing to think big, move fast, and innovate will become the strongest source of attraction.

To reach these goals, Vietnam needs to:

Raise TFP to 2–2.5 percent per year; build ecosystems for semiconductors, AI, and biotechnology; and foster large-scale private enterprises.

Develop high-quality human resources. Train at least 50,000 semiconductor and AI engineers by 2030.

Build a green and circular economy.

Reform institutions to lead the region.

Maximize the advantages of a 100-million-strong domestic market. 

Huynh The Du