Government Resolution 168 sets GDP growth target of 10 percent or higher for 2026.

To achieve this figure, according to the Government's scenario, GDP in the second half of the year must grow by 11.9 percent. Industry and construction must rise by 14.3 percent, with industry up 13.7 percent and construction up 17.6 percent, while the service sector needs to grow by 12 percent.

During the 2021–2025 period, the added value of the industrial sector grew by an average of about 6.7 percent annually. In 2025 alone, this sector grew by 8.8 percent, its highest rate since 2019; and manufacturing and processing increased by 9.97 percent, also marking the highest level in the 2019–2025 period.

Meanwhile, to accomplish the overall growth objective, industry needs to expand by up to 13.7 percent in the final six months of 2026, more than double its average pace over the previous five years.

Industry must therefore run significantly faster in the remaining months. Capital, electricity, and raw materials must be sufficient. But most importantly, factories need additional orders and manufactured goods must be sold.

That depends on the capacity to maintain export momentum, locate new markets, and resolve the difficulties preventing businesses from expanding production.

In 2021–2025, the construction sector grew by an average of about 6.7 percent per year, peaking at 9.62 percent in 2025. Meanwhile, in the second half of 2026, it must surge to 17.6 percent, nearly double the previous year's rate.

To reach 17.6 percent, public investment and major infrastructure projects must be expedited, ongoing bottlenecks must be cleared swiftly, and private sector projects must also be brought online faster.

Between 2021 and 2025, services grew by an average of about 7.1 percent annually, reaching 8.62 percent in 2025. The 12 percent goal for the second half of 2026 means this sector must also move much faster than in recent years.

Domestic purchasing power needs to strengthen, trade must continue expanding, and tourism must not only attract more visitors but also induce them to spend more; and transportation, logistics, and finance must accelerate as well.

Services currently account for over 42 percent of the economy, representing the largest of the three sectors. If this largest sector fails to achieve the necessary speed, the deficit will be very difficult to offset through the remaining sectors.

HCM City and Hanoi must speed up 

It is not just individual sectors that must run faster; the two main economic “locomotives”, Hanoi and HCMC, must do the same.

Hanoi achieved an average GRDP growth of about 6.6 percent per year during 2021–2025; it grew by 8.16 percent in 2025 and 8.22 percent in the first half of 2026, against a full-year target of 11 percent. The capital city must therefore accelerate considerably in the second half.

HCMC, the country's largest economic engine, grew by 7.53 percent in 2025 and has been assigned a target of 10.2 percent this year. Given the scale of these two economies, Hanoi and HCMC will significantly influence the nation's overall GDP figure.

Hai Phong, Bac Ninh, and Dong Nai have also been tasked with growth targets of 13 percent, 12.5 percent, and 10 percent, respectively. Due to administrative boundary adjustments across these localities following the 2025 reorganization, current data can no longer be directly compared with the GRDP series of previous years.

So, the 10 percent target demands a broad-based acceleration. Industry, construction, and services must all run faster - and so must the key economic engines.

From targets to action

Following substantial procedural reforms and decentralization efforts, ministries, agencies, and local authorities have now been granted greater autonomy.

Decentralization and delegation of power have empowered ministries, agencies, and local authorities with initiative. The Prime Minister's directive to assign KPIs to each entity also helps break down major goals into concrete tasks, enabling progress tracking and the timely identification and resolution of bottlenecks.

The tasks for the remaining six months are clear. Projects that already have capital and investors but remain stalled by procedural hurdles must be cleared promptly. 

When a project is deployed, the generated growth extends beyond the project itself to stimulate construction, materials, credit, employment, and various service activities. Public investment projects must also be implemented faster, while domestic consumption needs to grow strongly enough to support production, trade, and services.

Tu Giang - Lan Anh