Vietnam’s gross domestic product (GDP) is estimated to have expanded by 7.83 percent in the first quarter of 2026, higher than the 7.07 percent recorded in the same period last year, while inflation remains under control but continues to exert pressure.

Speaking at a press conference on April 4, Nguyen Thi Huong, head of the General Statistics Office under the Ministry of Finance, said the economy maintained a positive growth trajectory despite global volatility.

The agriculture, forestry, and fisheries sector grew by 3.58 percent, contributing 5.60 percent to the overall added value of the economy. The industry and construction sector rose by 8.92 percent, accounting for 44.08 percent of growth, while the services sector expanded by 8.18 percent, contributing 50.32 percent.

Manufacturing continued to serve as the main growth engine, with an increase of 9.73 percent, compared to 9.36 percent in the first quarter of 2025, contributing 32.52 percent.

In the services sector, strong consumer demand during the Lunar New Year holiday and a surge in international arrivals supported growth across multiple industries.

Assessing the first-quarter performance, Nguyen Thi Huong noted that despite unpredictable global economic and political developments, including escalating armed conflicts, Vietnam’s 7.83 percent growth rate reflects a positive outcome.

“Statistical indicators show that the domestic macroeconomy remains stable, and inflation is being kept under control at an appropriate level,” she said.

However, she cautioned that in the second quarter, the economy will continue to face significant challenges, particularly given Vietnam’s high degree of openness and its exposure to global fluctuations.

To achieve double-digit growth, she emphasized the need to maintain macroeconomic stability, ensure major economic balances, secure goods supply, and manage prices and markets effectively.

Authorities should closely monitor developments in Middle East conflicts, global oil prices, international transport costs, exchange rate movements, and emerging global risks.

She also stressed the importance of updating growth and inflation scenarios in a timely manner, enhancing the economy’s resilience, and adopting flexible fuel pricing policies through tax, fee, and stabilization fund tools to limit domestic price increases.

At the same time, it is necessary to carefully review the roadmap for adjusting prices of state-managed goods and services, such as electricity, healthcare, education, and public services, to avoid simultaneous inflationary pressure.

Inflation at 3.51% with continued pressure

According to the General Statistics Office, the consumer price index (CPI) in the first quarter rose by 3.51 percent year-on-year, while core inflation increased by 3.63 percent, slightly higher than the overall CPI due to the exclusion of food prices.

Key contributors to CPI growth included housing and construction materials, which rose by 5.69 percent and added 1.29 percentage points to overall inflation. Within this group, maintenance materials increased by 12.26 percent, rental housing by 6.55 percent, and electricity prices by 5.55 percent, reflecting higher demand and adjustments to retail electricity tariffs from May 10, 2025.

Food and catering services rose by 4.55 percent, contributing 1.63 percentage points to CPI. Pork prices increased by 7.14 percent, adding 0.3 percentage points, while dining-out services rose by 5.4 percent and poultry prices by 4.56 percent.

Education costs rose by 3.21 percent, contributing 0.19 percentage points due to tuition adjustments at some private institutions in the 2025-2026 academic year.

Other categories also saw increases, including beverages and tobacco (2.80 percent), household equipment (2.13 percent), culture, entertainment, and tourism (1.83 percent), garments and footwear (1.63 percent), and transport (1.07 percent).

Meanwhile, the information and communications group declined by 0.20 percent, slightly easing overall inflation due to lower prices for technology devices amid abundant supply and increased competition.

Globally, gold prices moved in the opposite direction of domestic trends. As of March 28, 2026, the average global gold price stood at US$4,909.01 per ounce, down 2.27 percent from February. The decline followed a period of strong gains, driven by profit-taking and capital outflows amid complex geopolitical conditions, along with a stronger US dollar and expectations of sustained high interest rates.

Domestically, gold prices rose by 1.54 percent in March compared to the previous month, reflecting adjustments by businesses amid supply-demand dynamics and investor sentiment, despite the global decline. Compared to the same period last year, gold prices surged by 82.77 percent, and by 18.81 percent compared to December 2025. On average, gold prices in the first quarter rose by 82.70 percent.

As for the US dollar, the average exchange rate in the informal domestic market hovered around VND26,315 per US dollar. In the first quarter, the US dollar price index increased by 2.58 percent.

Nguyen Le