A government report on the implementation of Vietnam’s 2025 socio-economic development plan presents a dynamic picture of the national economy, marked by major breakthroughs.

Nine-month GDP growth reached 7.85%, with full-year growth estimated at around 8% - among the highest in Asia and globally.

Vietnam’s GDP is projected to hit $510 billion in 2025, while average per capita income is expected to exceed $5,000 for the first time - a pivotal milestone in the country’s transition to a high-middle-income economy.

This impressive result stems from the government’s resolute, flexible, and consistent leadership throughout 2025.

Despite global headwinds such as slow recovery, inflation, and geopolitical uncertainty, the government prioritized macroeconomic stability, inflation control, and key economic balances.

A range of coordinated policy measures were rolled out, including prudent monetary policy, interest rate reduction support, accelerated disbursement of public investment - especially in strategic infrastructure - and export promotion through market diversification.

Particular focus was also placed on improving the business and investment environment, removing bottlenecks for enterprises, advancing digital transformation, developing the green economy, and fostering innovation.

Social welfare policies and support for individuals and businesses affected by disasters and epidemics were implemented in a timely and effective manner.

Unified direction from central to local levels generated strong momentum, enabling the economy to recover swiftly, maintain high growth, and improve incomes across the population.

At a glance: During the 10th National Assembly session, a resolution was passed outlining the 2026 socio-economic development plan, aiming for GDP growth of 10% or higher, and targeting per capita income of $5,400–$5,500.

Dr. Can Van Luc, Chief Economist at BIDV and a member of the Prime Minister’s Economic Advisory Council, forecasts Vietnam’s GDP growth in 2026 will reach 9–10%.

According to Dr. Luc, key growth drivers are expected to recover evenly. Notably, public investment will be vigorously promoted, with a planned disbursement rate of 100%, equivalent to about $34–35 billion, or 7% of GDP - the highest public investment-to-GDP ratio in Asia.

He noted that successful public investment disbursement could contribute up to 2 percentage points to GDP growth.

In parallel, domestic consumption - currently accounting for 60% of growth - is emerging as the most critical driver of Vietnam’s economic momentum.

Prof. Vu Minh Khuong from the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy (Singapore) emphasized that Vietnam has entered a pivotal stage - one that could see the country "take off" in the next two decades.

With strong macroeconomic fundamentals, a reawakened national ambition, and rapid digital and innovation advancements, Vietnam is well-positioned to transition to the next stage of development.

To achieve and sustain double-digit growth, Prof. Khuong recommends Vietnam focus on three strategic directions:

Institutional reform with policy-making processes grounded in evidence and pilot models;

Enhancing export value-add, especially in major markets such as China;

Investing in high-quality human capital and establishing “free trade zones” linked to universities and research hubs to foster innovation ecosystems.

Nguyen Le