Despite 2024 being considered a "prosperous year," Vietnam's birth rate has dropped to an unprecedented low of 1.91 children per woman, raising concerns about the country's demographic future.

At the annual population conference held on December 27, Deputy Minister of Health Nguyen Thi Lien Huong reported that Vietnam’s birth rate has declined rapidly over the past three years.

The nationwide fertility rate fell from 2.11 children per woman in 2021 to 2.01 in 2022, 1.96 in 2023, and an estimated 1.91 in 2024, marking the lowest level in the country’s history.

This trend is projected to persist in the coming years.

Fertility rates by region

Urban areas, characterized by higher socioeconomic development and urbanization, have seen the steepest declines.

In 2024, urban women had an average of 1.67 children, down from 1.7 in 2023.

In rural areas, where fertility rates have historically exceeded the replacement level of 2.1 children per woman, a significant shift is underway.

For the first time in 2023, rural fertility rates dropped below the replacement level to 2.07, with a slight rebound to 2.08 in 2024.

According to Vietnam’s 2019–2069 population forecast, the country’s fertility rate is expected to continue declining, reaching 1.85 children per woman by 2069.

If the low-fertility scenario persists, Vietnam’s population could begin shrinking as early as 2054, with negative growth accelerating in subsequent years.

Between 2054 and 2059, the population is projected to decrease by 0.04% annually, and from 2064 to 2069, the decline could reach 0.18% per year - equivalent to an average annual loss of 200,000 people.

Regional and policy challenges

Fertility rates vary significantly across Vietnam’s regions.

In 2024, the Northern Midlands and Mountains (2.34 children per woman) and the Central Highlands (2.24) continued to report higher-than-average fertility rates.

In contrast, the Southeast region recorded the nation’s lowest fertility rate at just 1.48 children per woman.

Out of 21 provinces classified as low-fertility regions, 13 experienced further declines below the replacement level.

Even provinces with high fertility rates saw reductions, with 10 provinces nearing the replacement threshold.

According to the General Department of Population, provinces with low fertility rates have not implemented sufficient policies or programs to encourage families to have two children.

Solutions and legislative measures

To address these challenges, Deputy Minister Lien Huong emphasized the need for supportive policies to ensure families, especially in low-fertility areas, feel confident about having children.

A draft Population Law by the Ministry of Health proposes several measures to maintain the replacement-level fertility rate, including policies to support workers with young children and provisions to alleviate concerns about raising children.

The law also suggests revising disciplinary policies to no longer penalize families with three or more children, alongside incentives for couples to have at least two children.

The draft law is expected to be finalized by December and submitted to the National Assembly in its 10th session in 2025.

In 2024, Vietnam's average life expectancy rose to 74.6 years, exceeding the planned target and slightly higher than 74.5 years in 2023.

However, the gender ratio at birth reached 112.3 boys per 100 girls, missing the target of 111.2.

Vo Thu