When the National Assembly approved the investment policy for the North–South high-speed railway at the end of November 2024, it marked a clear shift in development thinking.

The new mindset is that an economy aiming for double-digit growth from 2026 to 2030 can no longer rely on outdated transportation systems, high logistics costs, and overdependence on road and air transport.

This 1,541-km-long railway, crossing 20 provinces and cities, with a total investment of 1.7 quadrillion VND (approximately 70 billion USD), must not be seen merely as a transport project. It is a foundational pillar to build a new layer of national competitiveness.

In parallel, the National Assembly passed the amended Railway Law in 2025, establishing the legal foundation for this massive undertaking. The law redefines the scope of management, technical safety, planning, operation, and maintenance - crucially, it opens the door for private sector involvement and non-budget capital in railway infrastructure.

This signals a shift from policy orientation to legal codification, from concept to executable mechanisms.

But an investment policy is only a necessary condition - not a sufficient one. The core question is not whether the project will proceed, but how it will be executed, and who has the capacity to deliver it.

During a government meeting on November 27, 2025, Standing Deputy Prime Minister Nguyen Hoa Binh emphasized: “Everything must be fair, objective, transparent, and open - nothing under the table.” The phrase “nothing under the table” was repeated multiple times, establishing it as a guiding principle for this nationally significant project.

A key outcome of that meeting was the assertion that the investment model must be selected before choosing the investor. Whether the funding comes from public investment, PPP, or private capital, the priority is national interest. Only after the optimal model is chosen does it make sense to assess the competence of potential investors.

Six enterprises registered to participate, and five attended the meeting. However, their capabilities varied significantly. Some firms had capital of only 2–3 trillion VND (80–120 million USD), less than 0.2% of the project’s total value. Some submitted proposals without proof of finances or operational addresses, failing to answer even the most basic questions about equity. One company had previously boasted of raising 100 billion USD but couldn’t provide a single legal document to support the claim.

In contrast, capable investors arrived prepared. Truong Hai proposed a model of 20% equity and 80% loans and mobilized funds. Vinspeed (a Vingroup subsidiary) presented an investment plan of over 61 billion USD (excluding land clearance), with a five-year construction timeline once land is secured, a 30-year payback period, and a vision to develop a domestic high-speed rail industry.

The crucial shift here is that for the first time, investor selection is based on demonstrated capability, not promises.

If execution capacity is not assessed rigorously, this national-scale project risks the same fate as many before: cost overruns, delays, incomplete construction, and enormous social and economic losses.

But with the right choice, high-speed rail could become a development catalyst - reducing logistics costs, shortening travel times, expanding economic capacity, promoting regional connectivity, and enhancing national competitiveness.

Between late 2024 and late 2025, a clear logic has emerged: the Party has set the direction; the National Assembly has provided legal ground; the Government has begun assessing capacity. The project now enters its toughest phase - selecting the right executor.

This marks a new way of thinking. The state is no longer engaging businesses with vague promises, but with clear assignments: capital, timeline, technology, risk management, and accountability.

The first requirement is to select the optimal investment model. Whether public, PPP, or private, the criterion must be the national interest. Investors must then be filtered using strict standards: real financial capacity, funding plans, construction organization, technology, progress milestones, and risk management mechanisms.

The second requirement is transparency from start to finish. Disclose all documents, methods, risks, and responsibilities. Without transparency, any project can become a vehicle for vested interests.

The third is strict execution discipline. A 1,541-km railway cannot be built with a “cross that bridge when we get there” mindset. It demands a robust, independent supervisory system capable of managing everything from land clearance to operation and capital recovery.

The North–South high-speed railway is not a test run. It is a strategic infrastructure component tied directly to Vietnam’s growth targets and national competitiveness. This is a project that cannot be allowed to fail. It must be guided by clear selection criteria - not good intentions; by proven ability - not grandstanding; and above all, by national interest - not persuasive pitch decks.

This is no longer the era of billion-dollar declarations. It is the era of real capability and real responsibility. This project will only succeed if the one chosen is not the best speaker, but the one who can build a sustainable infrastructure backbone for the nation’s long-term growth.

Tu Giang