Bargain-hunting demand returned, lifting many blue-chip stocks, while oil and gas shares came under pressure as global crude prices cooled.

Buying momentum strengthened right from the opening as margin-call selling pressure eased. At the end of the opening auction session (ATO) at 9:15 a.m., the VN-Index had surged more than 44 points, or 2.7 percent, approaching the 1,700 mark.

A day earlier, on March 9, Vietnam’s stock market recorded one of the steepest declines in its history. The VN-Index lost more than 115 points, or 6.51 percent, falling to 1,652.79 points. The VN30 Index also dropped nearly 6.5 percent to 1,780.71 points.

The sharp sell-off occurred as global oil prices surged to US$118 per barrel after already jumping 36 percent the previous week.

However, developments in the energy market quickly reversed. In overnight trading, oil prices dropped sharply as investors rushed to take profits and reassessed the outlook for global supply.

By 9:15 a.m. on March 10, oil prices had fallen to around US$85 per barrel, significantly lower than the US$118 level recorded the day before.

The cooling of oil prices was also supported by signals on supply. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and its partners in the OPEC+ alliance said they would continue maintaining their production management strategy in order to stabilize the market and limit excessive price volatility.

At the same time, plans by the administration of US President Donald Trump to reopen the Strait of Hormuz - a strategic maritime route that transports about 20 percent of the world’s crude oil supply and 30 percent of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) shipments - also had a strong impact on markets. The route had been disrupted for more than a week due to conflict between the US-Israel alliance and Iran.

On Vietnam’s stock market, banking shares became the main driver of the rebound.

Shares of BIDV (BID) rose VND850 to VND41,400 per share (US$1.69), while Sacombank (STB) climbed VND2,100 to VND62,900 per share (US$2.56).

Several other large-cap stocks also advanced strongly. FPT gained VND3,500 to VND79,400 per share (US$3.23).

Shares in companies linked to billionaire Pham Nhat Vuong also traded positively. Vingroup (VIC) rose VND7,300 to VND152,900 per share (US$6.22); Vinhomes (VHM) increased VND4,500 to VND92,900 per share (US$3.78); and Vincom Retail (VRE) added VND450 to VND24,950 per share (US$1.01).

Within the VN30 basket, most stocks posted gains. Only two oil-related stocks, GAS and Petrolimex (PLX), declined, though the losses were relatively modest.

Waiting for signals from the Middle East

Despite the strong rebound, caution still lingers in the market. Liquidity has yet to match the surge seen in the previous session, while price movements remain rapid.

Investors continue to closely monitor geopolitical developments in the Middle East.

On March 9, on the social media platform Truth Social, US President Donald Trump warned that if Iran blocks the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz, Washington would respond “20 times stronger”.

Trump also said the military campaign targeting Iran had achieved its main objectives and was nearing completion, adding that the US had no plans to occupy the country.

Washington claimed it had completely destroyed Iran’s Fordow uranium enrichment facility using bunker-buster bombs.

This information is seen as a positive factor helping cool the oil market. However, tensions have not ended. Iran has continued launching more than 100 ballistic missiles toward Israel and deploying drones to strike bases across the Middle East.

Tehran has also insisted that its nuclear program will continue and that any destroyed facilities will be rebuilt.

Many analysts say that if hostilities end soon and oil prices fall significantly, global stock markets could recover considerably.

Conversely, if oil prices remain elevated, the risk of rising inflation could force central banks to delay interest rate cuts or even consider tightening again. Such a scenario could prompt capital to move away from risk assets such as equities.

In a report released on March 9, VNDirect Securities said that oil prices exceeding US$100 per barrel increase macroeconomic risks, but the valuation of Vietnam’s stock market is becoming increasingly attractive.

According to VNDirect, the area below 1,660 points is becoming appealing for long-term investors. The forward P/E of the VN-Index has dropped below its five-year average, while the P/B ratio is approaching valuation levels where medium- and long-term capital has historically begun accumulating during previous correction cycles.

Manh Ha