According to Hanoi’s Department of Construction, since the beginning of 2025, 33 real estate projects have been approved for capital mobilization, offering a total of 30,364 units to the market. Over 80% of these (24,556 units) are condominiums.

Compared to 2024, after just three quarters, the new supply has already reached about 80% of last year’s total. Savills statistics show Hanoi added around 30,900 apartments in 2024.

Despite supply recovery, apartment prices continue to rise as developers focus primarily on premium and luxury segments.

Hanoi's real estate market has entered a new phase of price escalation, with successive projects setting higher benchmarks. Apartments reaching the $4,000/m² mark are becoming increasingly common, with some projects doubling or tripling that price.

In early July, the Long Bien Central project (in Viet Hung ward) launched at a rumored price of $4,750/m² (excluding 10% VAT and 2% maintenance fee).

Also in July, Sun Feliza Cau Giay (in Cau Giay ward) announced prices between $5,600 and $8,000/m²  -  a record for new developments in the district.

In June, The Matrix Premium (Tu Liem ward) entered the market at an average price of $5,200/m², double its initial launch price four years ago.

Notably, Noble Crystal Tay Ho, located in the Nam Thang Long - Ciputra urban area, is now offered at $7,500–$13,200/m², comparable to or even exceeding prices of nearby townhouses.

Joining the "$4,000/m² club" is Hausman Premium Residence in the FLC Premier Parc urban area (Dai Mo ward), priced between $4,000 and $4,800/m².

Several other projects are nearing this level, priced between $2,400 and $3,600/m². For example, Galia Hanoi in Hoang Mai is listed above $3,200/m² after more than a decade of stagnation. Tan Hoang Minh’s Greenera Southmark Premium in Thanh Tri is also priced at around $3,200/m².

Last year, a major apartment complex in Dong Anh District also hit the $3,600–$4,000/m² mark, directly competing with central urban areas.

“Who can afford this?”

Based on current prices, Thanh Thuy from Ninh Binh calculated that even the smallest 50m² one-bedroom unit in Long Bien would cost about $231,000. A four-bedroom unit could cost $706,000–$765,000, equivalent to some townhouses in suburban areas.

At a project in Tu Liem ward, a unit just over 30m² costs around $172,000. This makes saving for homeownership increasingly difficult, even for high-income earners.

On September 22, at the first session of the Central Steering Committee on housing and real estate policy, Prime Minister Pham Minh Chinh emphasized that the housing market remains imbalanced, with a surge in premium products, especially in major cities.

He urged authorities to clarify whether the market is being manipulated and to address hoarding, price speculation, and market distortion.

The Prime Minister questioned the sustainability of rising condo prices: “So many people need housing, but prices are too high. If apartments are priced at over $2,800–$4,000 per square meter, who can afford to buy?”

Affordable housing vanishing fast

The Institute for Construction Economics (Ministry of Construction) noted that rising prices are pushing affordable options out of the market. In Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, apartments under $78,000 now make up only a small share of the market  -  mostly older units in remote locations.

In Hanoi, secondary apartments priced above $196,000 account for over 55.6% of supply. Those under $78,000 make up just 3.9%.

In Ho Chi Minh City, nearly 48% of listings are over $196,000, while only about 7% are under $78,000, gradually pushing genuine buyers out of the market.

Data from the Vietnam Real Estate Market Research Institute (VARS IRE) indicates growing structural imbalance. While real demand is concentrated in the affordable (under $980/m²) and mid-range ($980–$2,000/m²) segments, supply in these categories has dropped dramatically  -  from 19% and 33% in 2019 to just 7% and 19% in 2024, respectively.

Notably, in Hanoi and Ho Chi Minh City, the two cities with the highest housing demand, affordable and mid-range apartments have almost entirely disappeared since 2023.

Price outpacing income by decades

In Q2 2025, average apartment prices in Hanoi increased nearly 88% compared to 2019, reaching $2,940/m². According to VARS IRE, if using 2014 metrics, a middle-income family saving 100% of their earnings could buy a 70m², two-bedroom apartment (priced at $68,600) in about 18 years.

However, using the standard principle that housing costs should not exceed one-third of income, the saving period would triple.

By mid-2025, based on current average income levels, a family would need nearly 27 years to buy a $208,600, 70m² apartment if saving their entire income  -  or up to 80 years if saving just one-third.

Hong Khanh