The iPhone Duo could be in even shorter supply than expected when it officially goes on sale. According to a new analyst report, constraints in hinge production are significantly limiting supplies even as Apple prepares to open pre-orders next month.

After months of speculation surrounding Apple's first foldable iPhone, the company officially unveiled the iPhone Duo last week. Unlike the iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max, however, the new model is not going on sale as part of Apple's traditional September iPhone launch schedule.

Apple is expected to open iPhone Duo pre-orders on October 16, with the first devices due to reach customers from October 23. The additional wait is also keeping interest in the unusual iPhone high, particularly as it represents an entirely new category within Apple's smartphone lineup.

iPhone Duo production could fall sharply in 2026

Even before the device goes on sale, several reports have warned that iPhone Duo supplies could be extremely limited. The latest estimate from analyst Jeff Pu adds to those concerns.

Pu estimates that Apple will ship only around 6 million iPhone Duo units in 2026, significantly below his previous forecast of 7 million.

Notably, the reduction is not attributed to market demand. According to Pu, the problem stems from "hinge constraints" that are slowing production.

The hinge is one of the most important and technically complex components of a foldable smartphone. Beyond withstanding repeated opening and closing, it must maintain structural stability, help minimize the screen crease and withstand thousands or even hundreds of thousands of folding cycles.

For Apple, maintaining its quality standards with an entirely new design could make mass production more difficult.

The reduction in projected shipments from 7 million to 6 million suggests Apple may not yet have reached its expected production capacity during the initial manufacturing phase. The 6 million figure covers all iPhone Duo units expected to ship during 2026, rather than only those available around launch.

To put the scale of the constraint into perspective, Pu estimates that Apple could ship around 72 million iPhone 18 Pro and iPhone 18 Pro Max units before the end of 2026.

That would put projected shipments of the two Pro models at roughly 12 times those of the iPhone Duo. The gap illustrates the difference between established flagship iPhones with mature production processes and an entirely new product built around a foldable display and complex hinge mechanism.

Limited supplies could become particularly noticeable in the first few weeks after iPhone Duo pre-orders begin. If initial demand is high, customers could face longer delivery times, while popular storage configurations or colors could quickly sell out.

More expensive - and harder to buy?

The potential shortage is particularly notable given that the iPhone Duo has the highest starting price of any iPhone to date, at $1,999.

A high price would normally be expected to constrain demand for a new product. The iPhone Duo, however, is an unusual case: it is Apple's first foldable iPhone and represents a major change in the company's smartphone design.

As a result, anyone hoping to own an iPhone Duo from the first day of availability may need to prepare for very limited supplies.

With projected 2026 shipments of only around 6 million units and reported difficulties surrounding the hinge, getting an iPhone Duo in the initial release could prove more difficult than its $1,999 price might suggest.

Against that backdrop, the iPhone Duo is shaping up not only as Apple's most expensive iPhone, but potentially one of its hardest models to get hold of immediately after launch.

Hai Phong