Vietnam is facing mounting concerns over increasingly extreme weather patterns in 2026 as climate experts warn that El Niño conditions are gradually forming and could intensify later this year.
Meteorologists say the combined impact of climate change and El Niño may trigger a series of unusual and severe weather events, ranging from record-breaking heatwaves to violent storms, large hail and unpredictable rainfall patterns.
The biggest concern is the possible return of El Niño during the second half of the year.
Early heatwaves have affected northern and central Vietnam since March. Credit: Nam Khanh
International climate models are currently forecasting an 80-90% probability that El Niño conditions will emerge between mid-2026 and late 2026.
Some long-range scenarios are even warning of a potential “super El Niño” developing toward the end of the year and extending into 2027.
El Niño is a recurring climate phenomenon caused by unusually warm sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean, typically lasting between nine and 12 months.
According to the World Meteorological Organization, sea surface temperatures near the equatorial Pacific have risen rapidly in recent months, signaling a strong likelihood that El Niño conditions will develop between May and July.
When El Niño dominates, weather patterns across many regions become highly disrupted.
Experts warn that droughts and heatwaves tend to become more intense and widespread, while storms and heavy rainfall events can shift unpredictably and grow more extreme.
Southern Vietnam’s rainy season is also expected to arrive later and end earlier than usual.
Historical El Niño years such as 1993 and 1998 saw rainy seasons in Ho Chi Minh City and Can Tho delayed until late May or even mid-June.
Extreme heat has already appeared unusually early across Vietnam in 2026.
In northern Vietnam and central provinces stretching from Thanh Hoa to Hue, temperatures exceeded 40 degrees Celsius in late March and early April, breaking records at several meteorological stations.
Southern Vietnam has also endured a prolonged heatwave since mid-February, with extreme temperatures persisting through April.
Although scattered rainfall arrived in early May, forecasters say the heat has shown little sign of easing significantly.
Climate experts believe the unusual heat is linked to disruptions in atmospheric circulation patterns, causing heatwaves to become more prolonged and intense.
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Severe thunderstorms and hailstorms hit northern Vietnam in early May. Credit: Hoang Minh
At the same time, interactions between cold air masses and high humidity levels have created dangerous storm conditions across northern and central Vietnam.
Since mid-April, provinces in northern mountainous areas, Hanoi and parts of north-central Vietnam have experienced repeated episodes of severe thunderstorms, strong winds and large hail.
Some hailstones recorded in Phu Tho and Thai Nguyen provinces were reportedly as large as chicken eggs or tennis balls, damaging roofs, crops and vehicles.
Nguyen Van Huong, head of weather forecasting at Vietnam’s National Center for Hydro-Meteorological Forecasting, said thunderstorms are common during seasonal transitions but noted that this year’s pattern has been highly unusual.
“The simultaneous occurrence of widespread hailstorms from mountainous regions to lowland areas during early May is relatively rare,” Huong said.
“We expect thunderstorms and hail events to continue appearing with higher frequency in the coming period.”
Experts say the increasingly erratic weather highlights the urgent need to strengthen forecasting systems, improve disaster preparedness and accelerate climate adaptation efforts to reduce risks to people and infrastructure.
Vietnamnet.vn
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