On the morning of January 29, Nguyen Tuan Minh, a pig farmer in Phu Tho, sold 120 market-ready pigs at a price of VND80,000 ($3.20) per kilogram. “We’re in for a big Tet celebration this year,” he told VietNamNet.

According to Minh, his production costs  - including piglet purchases, feed, and other expenses  - averaged around VND57,000 ($2.30) per kilogram. Each pig weighed between 100 and 110 kg. Despite their slightly smaller size, the high price was too good to pass up. “At this rate, we’re earning about VND2.4 million ($96) in profit per pig, or nearly VND300 million ($12,000) for the whole batch,” he said.

Prices climb as supply shrinks

Live hog prices have been climbing daily. In northern Vietnam, rates have reached VND 79,000–81,000 per kilogram. Central and Central Highlands regions have seen prices between VND 76,000–79,000, while southern provinces report VND75,000–78,000.

A director at a large-scale livestock company  - operating around 250,000 pigs annually  - confirmed they’re currently selling at VND80,000/kg. With production costs around VND48,000–50,000/kg, the company is netting an average of VND 3.5 million ($140) profit per pig.

The firm sells about 4,000–4,500 pigs per week, each weighing 110–120 kg, earning up to VND15.8 billion ($632,000) in weekly profit. Sales are expected to double in the final week before the holiday, as farms clear inventory before the Tet break.

The supply crunch stems from multiple factors. An outbreak of African swine fever earlier in the year led to the culling of nearly 1.3 million pigs nationwide. Many farms delayed restocking due to the risk. Meanwhile, floods in northern and central Vietnam in late 2025 severely impacted farming operations.

Retail prices also spike

At local markets, pork prices are following the upward trend. In Hanoi’s Dai Tu market (Dinh Cong), cuts like pork shoulder, leg, and boneless hock have jumped by VND 10,000/kg to VND 150,000–160,000 ($6–6.40). Belly pork rose by VND 15,000 to VND 175,000 (USD 7), lean tenderloin is now at VND 170,000 ($6.80), and short ribs hit VND 190,000 ($7.60).

Nguyen Thi Huong, an online pork vendor in Dinh Cong, said prices have risen by about VND 30,000 ($1.20) per kilogram compared to mid-November. Her products now sell for VND 160,000–200,000 ($6.40–8) depending on the cut.

At a major supermarket chain in Hanoi, pork shoulder is priced at VND 143,000/kg (USD 5.70), belly at VND 190,000 ($7.60), lean shoulder at VND 183,000 ($7.30), shank at VND 155,000 ($6.20), and tenderloin at VND 120,000 ($4.80). The highest is pork spare ribs, selling at VND 214,000/kg ($8.50).

Outlook: How high can it go?

Nguyen Cong Bac, Director of Loc Phat BLLT Livestock Co., said prices began rising in mid-January, with live hogs reaching VND 74,000–75,000/kg. In Son La, prices have now hit VND 80,000/kg, just as he predicted.

At that level, a 120 kg pig can bring in a profit of VND 2.6 million ($104). Bac’s company expects to sell around 2,000 pigs this Tet season, generating VND 4–5 billion ($160,000–200,000) in profit.

Some companies had forecast that live hog prices could reach VND 85,000/kg. However, prices are now showing signs of plateauing  - or even dropping  - as large-scale “finishing” farms begin releasing more pigs onto the market. As supply increases, prices typically ease.

Still, as of late January, pork remains among the hottest commodities heading into the Tet Binh Ngo holiday.

Tam An