At the heart of the discussion lies a critical question facing every economy: how to simultaneously promote strong economic growth while maintaining macroeconomic stability.

These twin goals may appear to go hand in hand, but often move at different paces – a reality made evident in the reports presented at the 50th session of the National Assembly Standing Committee last week.

High growth trajectory

According to the government's report, Vietnam’s socio-economic performance in 2025 continues to show many positive results. Deputy Minister of Finance Nguyen Duc Chi stated: “Macroeconomic stability has been maintained, growth remains high, inflation is under control, and major balances have been preserved. GDP growth is estimated at 8%, inflation around 4%, and per capita GDP surpasses USD 5,000 – officially classifying Vietnam as a high-middle-income country.”

However, the Economic and Financial Committee urged the government to more thoroughly assess key issues such as mounting pressure on growth targets, limited growth quality, potential macroeconomic risks, slow economic restructuring, and the continued struggles of domestic enterprises – particularly small and medium-sized ones – due to sluggish private investment flows.

Chairman of the Economic and Financial Committee, Phan Van Mai, proposed: “To achieve the 2025 targets and the broader goals of the 2021–2025 period, we must maintain macroeconomic stability, implement tight monetary policy, maximize the role of targeted fiscal expansion, accelerate institutional reform, enhance traditional growth drivers, and cultivate new engines of growth to lay a sustainable foundation for 2026–2030.”

Deputy Chair of the National Assembly, Nguyen Khac Dinh, emphasized that tight and long-term macroeconomic management is essential for reaching the ambitious 10% growth target. He warned against overheating the economy, stressing that chasing high numbers at the cost of stability is unwise. “Management must be rigorous, with strict control of inflation, public debt, and credit quality to prevent risks like asset bubbles or external shocks,” he noted.

Balancing “growth” and “stability” is never easy. Excessive growth risks stoking inflation; too much tightening could stifle momentum. Decades of experience show that maintaining this balance demands long-term vision and disciplined policymaking.

Public investment and monetary policy remain key growth drivers

With the government targeting a growth rate of 8.3%–8.5% in 2025 – deemed a “non-negotiable” goal – it's evident that growth momentum is weakening on several fronts. The government acknowledges that emerging drivers like green and digital transitions are still in their infancy and need more time to bear fruit. Exports are facing headwinds, and domestic consumption is plateauing.

In other words, the economy remains heavily reliant on two traditional pillars: public investment and expansionary monetary policy.

This year’s total public investment has reached a record-high of 1.11 quadrillion VND (approx. USD 45.6 billion). However, by mid-October, only about 50% of this amount had been disbursed.

On the monetary front, as of late September, outstanding credit had reached nearly 17.71 quadrillion VND (approx. USD 725 billion), up 13.4% from the end of 2024. The annual target is 18%, equivalent to roughly USD 100 billion.

To achieve the full-year growth target, fourth-quarter growth must reach 8.5%–10% – a daunting challenge given weak global demand, exchange rate fluctuations, and surging gold prices.

Exports are being hampered by U.S. tariff policies, regional trade risks, and reduced demand in key markets. The goal of a USD 30 billion trade surplus thus becomes not only an economic indicator but also a litmus test for the competitiveness of Vietnamese businesses.

Investment, expected to underpin growth, has not broken through: newly registered FDI over the first nine months of the year totaled USD 12.4 billion – down 8.6% year-over-year. Public investment remains sluggish, and private sector investment cautious.

Leaders have repeatedly emphasized the same core principle: “Focus on economic development, maintain macroeconomic stability, control inflation, and ensure major economic balances.”

How to maintain major economic balances?

Setting a double-digit growth target may only take a few lines on paper, but achieving it is a long journey that demands executive capacity, market confidence, and the resilience of every business and worker.

Socio-economic development plans must be based on concrete, realistic calculations and, more importantly, aligned with the economy’s absorption capacity.

Achieving 8.5% growth in 2025 is an impressive result. But it also underscores the cost of that growth. The economy required over USD 45 billion in public investment and 18% credit growth to achieve that outcome.

So, if 2026 targets 10% growth, how much more public investment and credit expansion will be needed? And more importantly, how can we continue safeguarding macroeconomic stability?

This is not only a question for ministries and agencies but a test of the National Assembly’s prudence and resolve when approving national development indicators.

Tu Giang