On August 20, the General Administration of Customs China (GACC) approved 401 durian growing-area codes and 166 packing-facility codes in Vietnam. This brings the total number of Vietnamese durian growing-area codes approved by GACC to 1,917, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Environment.

The approval of a large number of additional growing areas and packing facilities will expand Vietnam’s capacity to officially export durians to China, particularly as the fruit enters its peak harvest season in the Central Highlands.

Vietnamese durian farmers received positive news from major markets over the past month. On August 5, GACC approved 50 testing facilities to test Vietnamese durians for cadmium and Auramine O before export to China.

The facilities have a combined testing capacity of 10,000-13,000 samples a day. The current laboratory system is basically capable of meeting demand for durian testing for export to China, including during peak periods, said Pham Van Duy, deputy head of the Department of Processing, Quality and Market Development.

In mid-July, the Indian government issued new import regulations adding Vietnam to the list of countries allowed to export fresh durians to India.

This gives Vietnamese durians access to a market of more than 1.4 billion people, where the middle class is growing and demand for quality imported agricultural and food products is increasing.

Vietnam is expected to produce about 2.08 million tonnes of durians this year, roughly matching or slightly exceeding Thailand’s 2.07 million tonnes. This puts Vietnam in a position to narrow the gap in durian exports.

Dang Phuc Nguyen, secretary-general of the Vietnam Fruit and Vegetable Association, said Vietnam could overtake Thailand to become the world’s largest durian exporter if export conditions remain favorable.

In 2025, Vietnam’s durian market share by volume in China, the world’s largest durian market, was already close to Thailand’s.

Nguyen said durian orchards planted in the Central Highlands and southeastern region between 2021 and 2023 will enter their peak productivity period, pushing Vietnam’s total durian output above 2.2-2.5 million tonnes a year.

If food safety is effectively controlled and growing-area codes are standardized, Vietnam’s durian exports could stabilize at $4.5-5 billion annually, he said. Conversely, any laxity in quality control could quickly result in Vietnam losing market share to competitors.

Nguyen expects Vietnam’s durian exports to reach $4 billion in 2026 and potentially $4.5 billion if the current export momentum is maintained.

Era of sky-high durian prices coming to an end

However, Nguyen said as Vietnam moves toward becoming the world’s leading durian exporter, the industry will undergo a major transition from 2027 to 2030. The period of “rapid production growth” will give way to quality screening, market restructuring and competition based on value chains.

As durian supplies boom, pressure to stabilize prices will increase. Farmgate prices of VND100,000-150,000 per kilogram for ungraded durians will no longer be common, he said. Instead, prices are expected to gradually move toward a more sustainable equilibrium of around VND40,000-70,000 per kilogram, depending on variety and quality.

During 2027-2030, Vietnam’s durian export structure and value chain are also expected to shift significantly. The share of fresh durians in total exports will decline, while frozen durians - both whole fruit and flesh - and deeply processed products will increase, potentially accounting for 30-40 percent of total export value.

Origin traceability is expected to become fully digital. Requirements for cadmium control, pesticide residues and GlobalGAP certification will become mandatory conditions for maintaining export growing-area codes.

Nguyen also warned that international competition is entering a more intense phase. Thailand is focusing on higher standards for natural ripeness and Brix levels while expanding rail logistics to shorten delivery times. Malaysia is accelerating exports of premium fresh varieties such as Musang King and Black Thorn to China’s high-end market.

Meanwhile, the Philippines, Cambodia, Laos and trial-growing areas on China’s Hainan Island are expected to add significant volumes to the market.

The influx of supplies from multiple countries into China will put downward pressure on durian prices, Nguyen said. However, lower prices could make durians more affordable to a wider range of consumers, helping drive further growth in Chinese demand and creating additional opportunities for Vietnamese exporters.

A Chinese enterprise noted that about one billion people in the country have yet to taste durian, even as retail purchasing power for the fruit continues to rise, particularly for high-quality and premium-branded products.

Tam An