The 550 billion USD mark is not merely a number. It is a test of endurance for Vietnam’s export sector in 2026.

At a time when the global market is fraught with uncertainty and the growth model based on expansion is nearing its ceiling, the question is how to sustain momentum without trading it for long-term risk.

Identifying the obstacles

Under mounting pressure to achieve double-digit growth, the Ministry of Industry and Trade recently convened the 2026 Export Promotion Conference, bringing together experts, industry associations and businesses.

In 2025, despite unpredictable geopolitical tensions, tariff shifts among major economies and domestic hardships caused by natural disasters and floods, Vietnam’s total import-export turnover still surpassed 930 billion USD, up 18.2%.

Exports alone reached 475 billion USD for the first time, an increase of nearly 70 billion USD compared with 2024.

Yet the global economic and trade outlook for 2026 offers little assurance that this growth trajectory can be maintained.

A series of obstacles persists, both internal and external, while market forecasts grow increasingly uncertain.

According to the Import-Export Department under the Ministry of Industry and Trade, growth driven purely by scale no longer has ample room to expand.

Shocks from markets, policy changes and global supply chains are becoming more difficult to predict.

The shift from quantity to quality, from expanding scale to raising value-added content and internal capacity, is no longer optional.

It is an inevitable requirement for the economy.

Nguyen Anh Son, Director General of the Import-Export Department, noted that Vietnam’s export growth continues to face structural challenges.

These include heavy dependence on the foreign-invested enterprise sector, reliance on imported raw materials and limited capacity to consistently meet the high standards of international markets.

“Exports still rely on a handful of major markets and lack balance between domestic enterprises and FDI firms.

Value addition remains modest, with strong dependence on electronics while domestic-branded products are scarce.

Input sourcing is not sufficiently diversified, and trade balances remain uneven across key markets,” Son said candidly.

The challenge stems not only from ambitious growth targets but also from unpredictable shifts in the global trade environment.

The world economy is recovering, but fragile, with risks linked to public debt, geopolitics and rising protectionism, including reciprocal tariffs from the US.

At the 2026 World Economic Forum, WTO Director-General Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala warned that protectionism is on the rise globally.

The growing use of tariffs and trade barriers weakens the multilateral trading system and makes the international business environment more unstable and less predictable.

Achieving double-digit export growth this year will therefore be highly challenging, requiring concerted efforts from ministries, local authorities and the business community from the outset.

Under Resolution No. 01/NQ-CP dated January 8, 2026, on key tasks and solutions for implementing the 2026 socio-economic development plan and state budget estimate, the Government has set a target of 15–16% export growth compared with 2025.

According to calculations by the Import-Export Department, meeting this goal would require total exports of approximately 546–550 billion USD for the year.

This means Vietnam must export an average of 45–46 billion USD per month.

In 2025, the highest monthly figure reached only 44 billion USD, achieved solely in December.

From July to November, monthly exports fluctuated between 42 and 43 billion USD.

Can Van Luc, Chief Economist at BIDV, observed that achieving 15–16% growth will not be easy, as current projections lean toward 12–14%.

Beyond external pressures, the export structure itself presents challenges.

High-tech categories such as electronics and electrical appliances continue to increase their share, while traditional sectors like textiles and footwear, though still growing, show signs of slowing market share gains.

“Heavy reliance on several key markets narrows the room for maneuver when those markets fluctuate,” Luc noted.

Expanding export space

In light of these challenges, Tran Thanh Hai, Deputy Director General of the Import-Export Department, said that as room for expansion-driven growth shrinks, continuing to rely primarily on scale poses risks.

Strong dependence on major markets such as the US and China leaves exports vulnerable to policy and trade shifts.

After an “explosive” year of orders that generated nearly 8.92 billion USD in export revenue in 2025, up 3.3 billion USD year-on-year thanks to record prices of 5,604 USD per ton, Vietnam’s coffee sector now faces the challenge of sustaining performance.

In the first 15 days of 2026 alone, coffee exports reached 89,000 tons, generating approximately 434 million USD, up 20.6% in volume.

According to Le Duc Huy, Vice Chairman of the Vietnam Coffee and Cocoa Association, the issue for 2026 is not whether to replicate last year’s “miracle” growth, but how to maintain sustainable momentum.

Price is only part of the equation.

More critical is the capacity of enterprises to adapt to increasingly stringent standards, especially regarding traceability and sustainability.

“The reality is that raw exports remain high, while deep processing capacity, logistics infrastructure and warehousing in major coffee-growing regions such as the Central Highlands are still limited.

This constrains value addition and bargaining power in international markets,” Huy said.

To sustain performance as a major trading nation, experts argue that Vietnam must diversify markets by effectively leveraging its 17 existing FTAs.

It should also expand service exports, particularly logistics and tourism, enhance trade promotion efficiency and strengthen the national brand.

If implemented in a coordinated manner, these measures would help preserve export resilience.

At the same time, foundational industries must be further developed to increase domestic value content and secure raw material supply, alongside stronger investment in research and development.

Agricultural exports, in particular, need to build brands linked to traceability and green standards.

Phan Duc Hieu, Standing Member of the National Assembly’s Economic Committee, suggested that beyond established export pillars, the next phase should adopt an open mindset that taps every possible growth margin.

“Alongside products that have already secured a foothold internationally, many others hold export potential if properly organized, supported and connected to markets.

We should not focus solely on familiar flagship items, but mobilize every product capable of reaching global markets,” Hieu said.

Cross-border e-commerce also offers significant revenue potential.

Pham Tan Dat, Head of the Logistics Committee of the Vietnam E-commerce Association, noted that e-commerce extends beyond B2C retail and opens substantial space for B2B exports and cross-border digital trade.

Enterprises should seize this channel to broaden their market reach.

Online import-export revenue currently exceeds 4.5 billion USD and is expected to continue growing in the coming years.

“In this new development phase, online exports should be viewed as a growth pillar, enhancing the value of Vietnamese goods, expanding markets and strengthening resilience against global shocks,” Dat recommended.

To meet the Government’s directive of over 15% export growth, the Ministry of Industry and Trade said it will focus on key solution groups in 2026.

These include boosting production, creating new export products, increasing value-added and domestic content, shifting from processing to manufacturing and proactive export, and responding effectively to trade barriers and trade defense measures.

“We will closely monitor trade policy adjustments of major economies, renew market information and trade promotion, accelerate digital transformation, make effective use of FTAs, diversify export markets, develop new markets, and reform administrative procedures, including simplifying specialized inspections in import-export activities,” Nguyen Anh Son affirmed.

The Hai