The year 2026 marks a turning point in Vietnam’s development journey - a country that has, over the past 80 years, risen from poverty to join the ranks of middle-income nations. Now, it eyes an even greater goal: becoming a developed, high-income country by 2045.

In this context, 2026 is not just another milestone on the calendar. It is a moment of strategic transition, where the country must decide whether to continue relying on its previous momentum or boldly choose a new path - developing not just to grow, but to stabilize for the long haul.

Golden population window - an opportunity that won’t come twice

Vietnam is in a once-in-a-lifetime demographic phase that will last just over a decade. More than 65% of the population is of working age, and over 24 million are still in school - a human capital base of extraordinary scale.

A rapidly growing middle class now accounts for about 13% of the population, expanding by 1.5 million people annually. This is not only fueling consumption but forming the social bedrock for a modern economy - one that demands transparent, fair, and efficient institutions.

Yet a golden population alone won’t generate growth. It becomes an economic driver only when education, public policy, and the business environment are reformed to support creativity, enhance productivity, and create opportunities for young people to generate value within the country - instead of remaining stuck at the lower rungs of global value chains.

Vietnam has come a long way in recent decades: GDP per capita has risen from under $700 in 1986 to nearly $5,000 today. Poverty has dropped below 1%. Average growth over the past decades has held steady at around 6.4% per year. The country’s Human Development Index stands at 0.766 - considered high.

Education has repeatedly ranked near the top regionally in PISA assessments. Access to schooling has expanded significantly. In healthcare, life expectancy has climbed above 74 years, infant mortality has declined sharply, and 93% of the population now holds health insurance. Nearly all households nationwide have access to electricity, and rural clean water access has improved dramatically compared to three decades ago.

These are more than economic statistics - they represent real improvements in quality of life, opening new opportunities for tens of millions of people. They also provide the foundation to take the next step forward.

From “stability for development” to “development for stability”

Despite the gains, serious questions remain about the depth and quality of growth. Over the past decade, productivity gains have slowed. Many private enterprises, even after 30 years of growth, still struggle to compete regionally. Several major tech firms have chosen other ASEAN nations over Vietnam for their large-scale and high-tech investments.

These patterns reflect not only intensifying global competition, but also structural limitations - from legal environments and administrative procedures to policy enforcement - that are now becoming visible barriers to Vietnam’s aspirations for fast and sustainable growth.

According to World Bank studies, Vietnam must simultaneously raise productivity by around 1.8% annually and sustain investment at 36% of GDP to meet its 2045 target. If growth were to depend solely on investment, the rate would need to rise to 49% of GDP - an unrealistic figure. If relying only on productivity, it would require performance far beyond current levels. These warnings highlight that the old growth model - heavily dependent on capital and labor expansion - is no longer sufficient.

For many years, Vietnam embraced the philosophy of “stability for development” - a prudent choice amid global uncertainties that helped maintain macroeconomic balance and public confidence.

But as traditional growth drivers fade, the time has come to adopt a new mindset: “development for stability.” Stability cannot be sustained without rising productivity, without unleashing creativity, and without institutions that are transparent, effective, and centered on national and citizen interests.

Breakthrough thinking for “extraordinary development”

In recent discussions about high-growth ambitions, economist Tran Dinh Thien emphasized that Vietnam can only achieve “extraordinary development” by removing mental and institutional barriers - when resources are allocated by market principles, when the state is no longer both player and referee, and when the private sector is truly empowered to be the economy’s leading force.

“Institutional breakthrough” is therefore not a slogan. It has clear coordinates: a transparent land market, a dramatically simplified administrative system that lowers compliance costs, and a competitive environment where private firms can grow based on real capability and bold innovation.

In this sense, setting a high growth target is not merely about numbers. It’s a natural pressure that forces the entire system to innovate - raising policy quality, improving enforcement, and awakening society’s intrinsic strengths.

2026: Choosing a new path

For these reasons, 2026 must be seen as a hinge year: a time to focus on productivity and growth quality rather than just scaling up investment; to streamline administrative processes to save businesses time and money; to foster innovation, the digital economy, and high-value industries; to build green infrastructure and energy foundations for long-term growth; to empower economic regions; and most importantly, to unleash private-sector potential through fair and transparent treatment.

This won’t be an easy road. But Vietnam’s past 80 years have shown it moves forward only when it dares to change - from independence and reunification, to Doi Moi, to the escape from poverty. Today, the will of the Party and the will of the people meet again in a new shared aspiration: the ambition to become strong, fair, and modern - for every citizen’s opportunity, for the youth’s future, and for the country’s standing in a fiercely competitive world.

The question now is no longer “Can we do it?” but “How will we act to make it happen?”

And if we treat 2026 as the starting point of a new trajectory - where development becomes the bedrock of stability, where institutions are reformed to free up resources, and where the golden population is transformed into productivity, knowledge, and opportunity - then this will be the year Vietnam doesn’t just raise its development goals, but begins taking longer, bolder strides toward becoming a developed nation by 2045.

Lan Anh