The State Bank of Vietnam (SBV) has set a 2026 credit growth target of approximately 15% for the banking sector, with provisions for flexible adjustments depending on real-time economic conditions. The target is intended to support the country’s goal of achieving double-digit GDP growth while maintaining inflation control and macroeconomic stability.

The decision has drawn attention from the business community, especially in light of the National Assembly’s endorsement of an ambitious GDP growth goal of 10% or more, with inflation kept around 4.5%.

In 2025, total system-wide credit expanded by 19.01%, contributing significantly to the 8.02% GDP growth. However, that pace sparked concerns about potential overheating, rising bad debt, and inflationary pressure if continued unchecked.

The 15% growth target, therefore, reflects a recalibration aimed at balancing the dual goals of high growth and financial system safety.

Speaking to VietNamNet, economist Dr. Vo Tri Thanh noted that the flexible approach is appropriate amid ongoing global uncertainty. “The 15% figure sends a clear policy signal,” he said.

Firstly, all scenarios require credit growth to be aligned with macroeconomic stability and prudent monetary policy. Secondly, the SBV’s messaging suggests a smooth and adaptive policy stance, avoiding abrupt shifts that could unsettle markets. Thirdly, credit expansion must still effectively support business growth and economic development.

According to Associate Professor Dr. Nguyen Van Phuong from the University of Economics under Vietnam National University, the 15% increase translates to about $117 billion in new credit - lower than the 2025 figure by roughly $7.7 billion, but still substantial.

The ability to adjust the target based on inflation, exchange rates, and corporate credit absorption will give the SBV the flexibility to inject or withdraw liquidity without altering the overall policy direction.

“Seen from this angle, 15% is a relatively sound figure - neither too tight nor too loose to pose financial risks,” Dr. Phuong added.

Vietnam’s 2026 growth strategy includes boosting public investment, increasing the share of manufacturing, promoting the digital and green economy, and expanding exports and domestic consumption. While bank credit remains a key funding channel, it is no longer expected to shoulder the entire burden, with capital markets and other social financing channels playing larger roles.

Hence, a 15% credit increase - if properly allocated to high-impact sectors like manufacturing, exports, green agriculture, SMEs, and digital transformation - could be more effective than sheer volume growth. Misallocation to speculative ventures or high-risk sectors would undermine its value.

Dr. Nguyen Van Loc, also from the University of Economics, emphasized that smart capital allocation could unlock greater value. “One dollar of well-directed credit could generate multiple times more added value, supporting the double-digit growth goal even with a 15% credit ceiling,” he said.

To realize that potential, banks must channel capital into the right sectors, and production-oriented businesses must upgrade their financial transparency and operational standards to align with modern credit appraisal systems.

Policy implications for businesses

The SBV has also reiterated its commitment to controlling credit flows into real estate and other high-risk areas. This does not signal an outright restriction, but rather a distinction between essential housing projects and speculative ventures.

Social housing, worker accommodations, renovation of old buildings, and infrastructure-ready urban developments will still be eligible for loans - provided they meet legal, financial, and operational transparency standards.

For businesses, this is a critical time to professionalize their banking relationships. Dr. Loc advised that only companies with clear financial reporting, standardized governance, and viable business plans will benefit from prioritized credit access under the 15% system-wide limit.

“As banks move from collateral-based lending to internal credit scoring models, businesses with solid credit histories, transparent accounting, and long-term strategies will stand out,” he said.

Another noteworthy development is that the SBV now manages credit allocation on a quarterly basis to prevent early-year surges followed by year-end credit shortages. For the first quarter of 2026, banks are instructed to manage credit growth cautiously in line with macro trends and actual market demand.

This means businesses should proactively engage with banks early in the year, prepare comprehensive loan documentation, and avoid delaying capital requests until later quarters - when banks may have already reached their allocation limits.

Spreading out loan applications according to production and cash flow cycles will also help firms ease repayment pressure and make the most of favorable interest rate windows.

Tuan Nguyen