After a year in which storms and floods shattered long-standing records, Vietnam’s approach to increasingly intense natural disasters must now reach a new threshold of adaptation in a country long described as “shielding storms in the morning, blocking scorching sun in the afternoon.”

Records breaking records

Having once been a victim of the historic 1999 flood in Hue, I thought I understood what devastation meant. Yet the 33 days from October 22, 2025, spent following storms and floods across central Vietnam tested the limits of my emotions.

There were moments of paralysis when the Song Ba Ha hydropower plant discharged water at 14,740 cubic meters per second, then surged to 16,100 cubic meters per second within just three hours. Periods of extreme tension stretched on. My phone vibrated incessantly with desperate messages for help. With each message read, my hands trembled. I tried to steady myself, but the psychological toll was overwhelming.

In 2025, natural disasters and extreme weather swept from north to south, with preliminary estimates of economic losses reaching VND100,000 billion (US$4 billion). Production was disrupted, and recovery will take years.

The year set a record for tropical cyclones forming and moving across the East Sea and making landfall, with 21 systems surpassing the previous high of 2017. Storm No. 3 brought torrential rains that pushed Ban Ve reservoir beyond its design flood level and even beyond the 5,000-year flood frequency threshold, triggering catastrophic flooding in western Nghe An.

Historic Storm No. 10 lingered over land longer than any before it, followed closely by the circulation of Storm No. 11, which caused record flooding in Thai Nguyen, Lang Son, Bac Ninh and Hanoi.

River levels also broke records set in the last century. The Vu Gia River in Quang Nam exceeded its historic 1964 peak. The Bo River in Hue rose higher than during the devastating 1999 flood. Near the end of the year, unprecedented flooding struck Dak Lak, in the former Phu Yen area, as well as Khanh Hoa and Lam Dong.

When disasters exceed tolerance thresholds

In disaster risk theory, a region is considered resilient when its ecosystems, infrastructure and community knowledge can withstand shocks. But when rainfall exceeds 1,000mm within 48 hours, most infrastructure systems struggle to cope.

The scale of extreme events became starkly evident in rainfall data from October and November. At Bach Ma peak, rainfall recorded between 7pm on October 26 and 7pm on October 27 reached 1,739mm, nearly equal to Vietnam’s average annual rainfall of 1,400 to 2,400mm. It was the largest 24-hour rainfall ever recorded globally in the 21st century.

The downpours persisted over multiple days and waves, creating complex, overlapping disasters beyond design capacity. While analyzing and forecasting the flood situation in Dak Lak before waters peaked, I concluded that it represented a once-in-a-century combination of hazards.

Scientific analysis shows a clear correlation between climate change and the rise of extreme events. As global average temperatures edge beyond 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, disasters intensify. Rapid transitions between El Nino and La Nina phases, with only brief neutral intervals, leave the atmosphere in constant instability.

Monsoon systems, shaped and “memorized” over millions of years, appear to be losing that memory, producing unusual northeast wind convergence zones, easterly disturbances causing extreme rainfall, and dry, hot southwest winds prolonging drought.

Floods and droughts will alternate, both exerting profound impacts on Vietnam’s socio-economic life. To adapt, both infrastructure and people must raise their resilience thresholds.

Across the country, from Thai Nguyen to the South Central region, what impressed me most was the endurance and solidarity of the Vietnamese people. Communities in Thanh Hoa, Thai Nguyen, Hue and Quang Nam, still reeling from historic flooding, were among the first to mobilize aid for newly stricken areas.

What must be done now

To safeguard development achievements, Vietnam must accelerate climate adaptation and disaster prevention actions with urgency and continuity.

First, develop comprehensive response plans.

From hamlets and communes to provincial authorities, each level must prepare scenario-based response plans tailored to different types of extreme disasters, with clear action steps and resource mobilization strategies. While Vietnam has effectively implemented the “four on-the-spot” principle, greater proactivity is essential.

Second, mainstream disaster risk information.

Nearly two decades of research in disaster risk management have shown that communities frequently exposed to hazards tend to respond better. Preparation before disasters, reinforcing homes, elevating belongings, relocating to safe shelters, is crucial.

Forecasts must be made more accessible. Instead of stating that a storm will pass through certain coordinates, people need to know whether it will directly impact their locality. River flood warnings should translate alarm levels into projected inundation depths in residential areas.

Third, modernize warning systems.

Disaster warning information is now integrated into the Vietnam Disaster Monitoring System at https://vndms.dmc.gov.vn. The next step is developing mobile applications for real-time forecasts and alerts. Investments are needed to install camera-based real-time water level monitoring at reservoirs and along river systems, combined with flood scenario modeling based on historical data and meteorological forecasts.

High-risk areas should be equipped with flood and storm siren systems, similar to Hue’s flood warning sirens and the river monitoring features integrated into the Hue-S application.

Fourth, establish trained volunteer rescue teams and strengthen resources.

In 2025, we formed a temporary “Three-Region Disaster Response Team” of around 50 members, including boat operators, drone pilots and logistics personnel. While volunteer resources are abundant, coordination gaps remain. At times, boats had to be transported more than 500km to flood zones, even though local boats were available but not mobilized effectively.

Localities prone to flooding should form trained, officially recognized rescue boat teams that can coordinate both locally and within a national rescue network.

Fifth, build comprehensive relief and recovery scenarios.

Vietnam’s spirit of solidarity is immense, but without coordinated planning, aid distribution becomes inefficient. Some areas receive excessive donations due to media coverage, while communities just five kilometers away receive none. Mismatched supplies and logistical mismanagement lead to waste.

Beyond response planning, local authorities need rapid assessment tools immediately after disasters to identify urgent needs and adjust response strategies. These needs should be transparently updated in real time on an online platform accessible to charitable groups.

Human activity also contributes to vulnerability. Deforestation, pollution and shrinking safe living spaces intensify disaster impacts. Repeated extreme events raise a troubling question: when will we no longer have to live in fear of storms and floods?

Raising house foundations above flood levels is only spontaneous adaptation, a case of “water rises, the floating plants rise.” Sustainable adaptation requires looking beyond individual homes to restore forests, protect rivers and lakes, and preserve every tree. Only by safeguarding ecosystems can we protect our living space in harmony with nature.

Dr. Nguyen Ngoc Huy