Where will Vietnam find the capital needed for its next development phase? How can the country mobilise such vast resources while safeguarding national financial stability? And what new financial models and instruments could attract domestic and international investment?

These were the three questions raised by Nguyen Thanh Nghi, Politburo member, Secretary of the Party Central Committee and Chairman of the Central Commission for Policy and Strategy, during a session on financial resources at the annual Vietnam New Economy Forum 2026.

Nghi stressed that long-term capital can flow into the economy only when there are high-quality, efficient and transparent long-term projects ready to absorb it.

Given Vietnam's ambitious development targets for 2026-2030, he emphasised that the country could not simply continue doing more of the same.

The discussions that followed revealed a striking paradox: substantial pools of capital are looking for suitable investments, while major projects are struggling to secure financing.

Closing that gap will require changes in how financial markets operate and how investment projects are prepared.

Long-term capital is waiting to be deployed

Dr Can Van Luc, a member of Vietnam's National Financial and Monetary Policy Advisory Council, estimated that the country will need approximately US$1.49 trillion in investment capital over the next five years.

The state sector is expected to provide 22% of that amount, leaving the remaining 78% to be mobilised from private investors and foreign investment.

According to Luc's breakdown of financing channels, bank credit currently accounts for approximately 48%, while equities and corporate bonds together contribute only about 15%.

Major infrastructure projects, such as highways and seaports, often require years to complete and even longer to generate sufficient returns.

If such projects continue relying primarily on bank loans, pressure on the banking system will intensify, potentially limiting the credit available to manufacturing and other businesses.

Meanwhile, Ta Thi Tue Anh, HSBC's Director of Financial Institutions, pointed to another potential source of long-term financing based on her experience providing fund management and asset services to life insurers.

According to an unofficial HSBC estimate she cited at the forum, Vietnam's life insurance sector manages more than $30 billion but faces a serious shortage of suitable long-term investment opportunities.

Most of these funds are currently invested in government bonds and short-term bank deposits.

"I believe we can mobilise a substantial amount of domestic capital before looking to international markets," she said.

Her observation highlights a central challenge in Vietnam's financing landscape: the problem is not simply how much money is available, but how effectively it can be channelled into suitable investments.

Institutions managing long-term savings need reliable investment assets that can help them meet their future financial obligations.

Trinh Van Can, CEO of Kafi Securities, raised a similar issue when discussing voluntary pension funds.

Although Vietnam introduced policies to encourage such funds more than a decade ago, their combined assets currently amount to only around $85 million.

Can offered a hypothetical calculation: if one million people each contributed approximately $77 per month, the system could accumulate roughly $77 million in long-term capital every month.

The example illustrates the considerable investment potential that could be generated through regular contributions from workers.

He also suggested examining the individual retirement account (IRA) system in the United States, under which individuals, and in certain arrangements employers, can make regular retirement contributions for investment in eligible assets.

Such mechanisms could provide another channel for developing Vietnam's long-term capital market.

Raising capital means accounting for risks

Mariam J. Sherman, the World Bank Country Director for Vietnam, Cambodia and Lao PDR, argued that public resources alone cannot meet Vietnam's investment requirements.

Nor should the banking system be expected to shoulder most of the responsibility for financing infrastructure.

She recommended deepening the domestic bond market and broadening the investor base.

For international financing, she suggested that progress towards an investment-grade sovereign credit rating could help lower borrowing costs for both the government and businesses.

Yet financial markets can deliver their potential only when investment projects are sufficiently credible to attract investors.

Sherman identified several obstacles, including unpredictable revenue streams, limited instruments for hedging foreign-exchange risks and contractual arrangements that lack sufficient stability.

These are precisely the issues investors must assess before committing capital for many years.

An ambitious development plan, however promising, must ultimately be translated into an investment proposition with measurable returns and clearly identified risks.

Regarding public investment, Sherman called for more rigorous project selection before funding is allocated, with full consideration given to operating and maintenance costs.

Infrastructure must not only be built. Once completed, it also needs sustainable financing to remain operational and deliver its intended benefits.

She further emphasised the importance of transparently measuring and monitoring the financial risks assumed by the state when providing commitments designed to attract private investment.

Government guarantees, for example, may help infrastructure projects obtain financing, but they can also create potential future liabilities for the public budget.

Responsibilities and risk-sharing arrangements should therefore be clearly established in project contracts from the outset.

Combining funding sources and preparing investment-ready projects

For projects requiring substantial capital over extended periods, Sherman proposed financing mechanisms that combine public funding, concessional loans and private investment.

Such arrangements, she said, should be professionally managed, governed by clear regulations and supported by transparent information.

They could provide long-term financing in Vietnamese dong, guarantees and credit-enhancement instruments tailored to specific project risks.

At the same time, these mechanisms could help ministries, government agencies and local authorities develop pipelines of projects ready to attract investment.

Project preparation is the critical link between available capital and actual investment opportunities.

Before committing funds, investors need credible revenue forecasts, cost estimates, clearly defined risk-sharing arrangements and confidence that contractual obligations can be enforced.

Sherman also proposed capturing part of the increase in land values generated by new transport corridors.

Revenue from this additional land value could be reinvested in infrastructure maintenance, further development and community services.

Such an approach would allow some of the economic value created by public investment to flow back into the infrastructure system.

The forum discussions highlighted several possible sources of financing for Vietnam's next growth phase, including life insurance funds, pension savings, bond markets, international capital and mechanisms combining public and private resources.

How much each channel can contribute will depend on the country's ability to address the obstacles that currently prevent capital from flowing efficiently.

Ultimately, the condition set out by Nguyen Thanh Nghi remains the starting point.

Life insurers managing policyholders' money, workers saving for retirement and international investors all need to understand how their capital will be used and who will bear the associated risks.

To secure their long-term commitment, Vietnam must do more than demonstrate that it needs investment.

It must develop projects credible enough to justify the confidence, capital and patience of those willing to finance them.

Lan Anh