VietNamNet Bridge - Contrary to optimistic forecasts given earlier this year, rice exports have plunged recently. The total export volume would be less than 5 million tons in 2016, a record low since 2009.

Lao Dong cited a VFA report as saying that Vietnam had exported 4.117 million tons of rice by the end of October with export turnover of $1.836 billion, a decrease of 21.2 percent in volume and 16.9 percent in value compared with the same period last year. 

VFA emphasized that the problem not only lies in the sharp fall in exports, but also in the abnormally high inventory volume. It is estimated that 1.2 million tons of rice are still in stocks.

Gana, the second largest export market for Vietnam, imported 387,700 tons of rice from Vietnam, worth $189.6 million, which represented an increase of 41.8 percent in volume and 36.2 percent in value. 

Indonesia, Vietnam’s fourth largest export market, imported 359,400 tons of rice in the first nine months, worth $142.5 million.

However, the increases in exports to the two markets could not offset the decreases in exports to China, the largest export market.

Nguyen Dinh Bich, a trade expert, in an article on Thoi Bao Kinh Te Saigon, stressed that only Vietnam had a bad export season in 2016, while its rivals had satisfactory business.

Contrary to optimistic forecasts given earlier this year, rice exports have plunged recently. The total export volume would be less than 5 million tons in 2016, a record low since 2009.

If the export volume in the last two months of the year is less than 400,000 tons as forecasted in October, Vietnam’s total export volume in 2016 would be less than 5 million tons.

Meanwhile, India leads the world in rice exports with 8.1 million tons in the first nine months of the year, a drop of 9.9 percent compared with the same period last year. Thailand has been firm in the second position with 6.9 million tons, a slight increase of 3.7 percent.

Bich pointed out that exporters were wrong when believing that Thailand’s move to sell its stockpile would not affect Vietnam’s exports.

Reports showed that in order to export 6.9 million tons of rice in the first nine months, Thailand offered the low price of $449 per ton, or $31 per ton lower than the price of the same period last year. 

Meanwhile, the average price for 5.2 million tons of white rice dropped to $351 per ton. The average price of 1.7 million tons of Thai Hom Mali rice dropped to $751 per ton, down by 17.7 percent.

After the selling price dropped for old rice, Thailand also offered low prices for new rice to lure customers.

Meanwhile, Vietnam’s average export price of 4.2 million tons in the first 10 months was still at $449 per ton, up by 5.5 percent.

Mai Chi